The Rwandan army reoccupying the Eastern Congo?
By Jean-Jacques Wondo Omanyundu
One of the promises of the Congolese president Félix Tshisekedi, made to the Rwandan president, during his stay in Kigali at the end of March 2019, was to act together to put an end to the armed groups that are scouring eastern DRC[1], in particular via joint military operations in the DRC, according to information from an African diplomatic source. Several Congolese military sources and MONUSCO confirmed the presence of two Rwandan special forces battalions in the DRC in June 2019[2], in Virunga Park in North Kivu and in the vicinity of Uvira in South Kivu, near the border with Burundi, at the invitation of President Félix Tshisekedi after the tripartite DRC, Angola and Rwanda which was held on May 31, 2019[3], on the sidelines of the official funeral of Etienne Tshisekedi.
After the failure[4] of the project of an “integrated staff ” of the region’s armies (Burundi, DRC, Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania) in order to allow the troops of these countries to take part in military operations against armed groups in eastern DRC, the FARDC, the Congolese army, have officially launched a major offensive alone against armed groups in North Kivu[5]. However, several concordant information received from Congolese and Ugandan military sources, as well as from civil society, indicate the massive presence of several Rwandan battalions estimated at around 4,000 soldiers in operations in the DRC in support of the FARDC, the Congolese army
This analysis attempts to explain the security and geopolitical motivations that underlie the strong presence of special RDF units, the Rwandan army, in the DRC alongside Congolese soldiers who are carrying out offensives in order to eradicate armed groups from the East of the DRC. These Rwandan operations in the DRC apparently do not have the same objectives as those pursued by the Congolese army. In addition to tracking down Rwandan rebels living in the DRC, these operations aim in particular to consolidate a Rwandan military presence in the east of the DRC where Rwanda derives strategic economic dividends for its economy.
Rwandan army in South Kivu in support of FARDC and Mai-Mai Yakutumba
South Kivu has been experiencing an upsurge in violence since 2017. We are talking about a war by rebellions interposed between Rwanda and Burundi. On one side are the Burundian rebels, the National Liberation Forces (FNL)[6], a Hutu rebellion and Red Tabara [7], supported by Rwanda in 2015, particularly in terms of recruitment and training, according to a report by the UN group of experts[8], as well as Mayi-Mayi groups, including the Yakutumba and Mayi-Mayi Bembe and Bafuliro.
On the other side, there are the Gumino, a Banyamulenge group supported by the Rwandan National Congress (RNC) of dissident general Kayumba Nyamwasa, who wants to overthrow Rwandan President Paul Kagame. According to a report by the United Nations expert group on DR Congo, the RNC settles in the forest of Bijabo, north of Minembwe, and establishes an alliance with the fighters Banyamulenge Gumino. The same report indicates that Burundi then serves as a transit territory for some of its recruits[9].
It is in this Congolese sociological and regional geopolitical imbroglio that the special units of the Rwandan army intervene in support of the Congolese Mayi-Mayi who fight the Banyamulenge who support the RNC of Kayumba and in support of the Rwandan rebels who want to drive Nkurunziza out of power, but also against the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR). Rwandan military support led to the assassination, in September 2019, of FDLR rebel leader Sylvestre Mudacumura[10].
North Kivu under military occupation of the Rwandan army which does not attack the “presumed ADF”?
It is in North-Kivu that the massive presence of Rwandan soldiers is reported by several sources. They fight on the basis of a distribution of land co-established with the command of operations Sokola 1 in Beni. Rwandan military and paramilitary troops, estimated at around 3,000 men, are mainly deployed in Virunga, according to a Congolese military source. Several witnesses saw them in Ishasha, Masisi, Rutshuru, Kitshanga, Walikale and Rumangabo. They operate in camouflage clothing from the FARDC or local armed groups. This presence of Rwandan special units in the DRC notably led to the assassination in Rutshuru, on November 9, 2019, of the FDLR rebel leader, Juvenal Musabimana, known as “General Jean-Michel Africa ”, leader of one of the branches of the rebellion, officially by the FARDC. But military sources attribute the assassination to the armed group Nduma Defense du Congo-Rénové (NDC-R) of rebel leader Shimirayi Mwisha Guidon, supported by elements of the Rwandan special forces. According to the UN experts reports, the NDC-R also regularly supported FARDC and is not worried in the ongoing military operations. It mainly fights Hutu rebels of the FDLR and other local militias, in particular the “maï-maï Mazembe”, a self-defense group made up of young Nande to end the massacres in Beni and in South Lubero.
A mysterious surrender of the mayi-mayi to temporarily cool the “presumed ADF”?
After general indignation following the wave of massacres of civilians since the start of the operations, 707 Mayi-Mayi militiamen surrendered to the FARDC on December 4, 2019, in Chani-Chani, in the territory of Beni. Most of them are fighters from the Uhuru rebel group. According to the self-proclaimed general of this militia, the objective is to unite efforts to definitively fight the ADF in Beni[11]. Curiously, instead of demobilizing these Mayi-Mayi who should not have their place in the army, Colonel Mukulu, the Chief of Staff’s envoy to the region, declared that “these combatants will undergo a little training before supporting the loyalist forces, engaged in the hunt for the ADF ”. The returned Mayi-Mayi were gathered in a transit center in Mayimoya.
However, in the past, the rebel group Uhuru raged in the locality of Samboko, east of the rural commune of Oicha, chief town of the territory of Beni. The Samboko-chani-chani region is almost uninhabited, its inhabitants have abandoned the village to take refuge either in Oicha, Eringeti for some, or on the other side of the Samboko river whose village bears the name, in neighboring Ituri[12]. Curiously, it is in this same area that the massacres of civilians were attributed to the alleged ADF, including that of May 23, 2019[13].
On October 29, 2018, we received the message from a Congolese officer deployed in Beni who identified Rwandophones as ADF attackers instead. He told us about the capture of a dozen alleged ADFs in a plot of an individual in the popular district of the city of BENI called Matonge. “They were transferred to the military site called OZACAF which is the largest logistics depot which supplies all the units which are engaged in the vicinity of Beni, Butembo and Lubero, pending orders from the upper echelon to transfer them to the military dungeons. The order came from the upper echelon to release them. During their interrogation, the assailants confessed to belonging to the ADF group from Kirumba and they wanted to reach the locality of Boga in the province of Ituri. They speak Kinyabwisha [14], a dialect close to Kinyarwanda, particularly spoken by the population of Rutshuru and Masisi.”
In addition, a massacre of ten civilians was perpetrated on December 12, 2019 in the chiefdom of Watalinga, located about 100 kilometers northeast of the city of Beni near a position held by the commandos trained by China. After the massacres, the locals chased the attackers with arrows and killed two. These are the two commandos of the said brigade Ninja part of the 4 th promotion of Kamina Training Center formed by the Chinese commando instructors. The unit is commanded by Colonel TEM[15] Dunia and deployed at the front center on the Mayangose-Watalinga axis.
According to a Congolese military officer, in addition to elements of the few FARDC units involved in the massacres in Beni, the recruitment and funding of the “presumed ADF” who kill in Beni is provided by a Congolese military intelligence network led by General Delphin Kahimbi, the FARDC Deputy Chief of General Staff responsible for intelligence, since Jamil Mukulu’s escape from the DRC. He speaks of recruitment in the circles of ADF veterans mixed with certain local militias and Rwandophone killers to constitute the new group of presumed ADF/MTM (Madina to Tauheed Wau Mujahedeen)”that some attribute an allegiance to the Islamic State. We will return to this in depth in a future analysis.
The FARDC mainly conduct operations in the South of Beni leaving the massacres to be committed in the North
A careful analysis of the current military operations carried out by DESC military experts notes an abnormal deployment of troops in the operational sector. Indeed, since the start of large-scale military operations announced by President Tshisekedi, the vast majority of large-scale operations have been carried out southeast of Beni, where no massacre has occurred in recent weeks. Very few operations are carried out in the western part. Since the launch of the operations, there have been nearly 200 victims, almost all in the northwest area of Beni. This northern axis of Sokola 1 North operations includes the localities of Kamango, Mbau, Mangurejipa, Oicha, the Semuliki river valley. Its headquarters are located in Erengeti (See the map above). According to information collected from military sources in North-Kivu, the main bases of the “presumed ADF” massacrers as well as their areas of operations are located in this geographical area of the North axis of Sokola 1, between the Semuliki River, located north of the territory of Beni, bordering the province of Ituri, and the locality of Mavivi, located 10 km from the city of Beni. This is where the vast majority of massacres are committed according to the DESC analyzes, illustrated by the map of the operations above.
In addition, the soldiers on the ground inform us that there are approximately 21,000 FARDC soldiers officially in these operations but the troops are divided into battalions and units which are not in contact with each other. Air support for field operations is lacking. The three sukhoi-25 aircraft based at Kisangani are practically non-operational. They cannot rotate independently Kisangani – Beni – Kisangani within a radius of 800 kilometers. The two MI-24 helicopters capable of fixing the enemy in motion and effectively supporting the ground troops are defective.
Besides the disorganization of the troops and operations[16] and the complexity of command of operations since the appointment of General John Numbi[17], there is a deployment of several Rwandan battalions in the region to bypass the Ugandan border on the Congolese side (see map above) in order to keep in check a possible entry of Ugandan troops, according to a source of Ugandan military intelligence.
“They are the slaughterers in the pay of Kabila and Kagame maintained by generals Kahimbi and Gabriel Amisi Tango Four. Following popular dissatisfaction with the increase in massacres in the area, they received the signal to surrender so as not to suffer losses if the Security Council strengthens the mandate of MONUSCO and increases the strength of the MONUSCO brigade to act in this area as in 2013. We put them in the cool, to return them to the scene of the massacres later. There is a complicity between the Congolese and Rwandan military authorities who mislead President Tshisekedi,” said a Congolese military intelligence officer. He cites the name of Colonel Bernard Ngozi Kashumba to co-pilot with General Numbi the Rwandan and Congolese operations in North Kivu.
Rwandan military presence on Congolese soil, a violation of the Constitution and the UN charter by Félix Tshisekedi ?
This massive presence of the Rwandan army in Beni territory and in South Kivu is an opportunity to remind President Tshisekedi, and members of his government, of the prescriptions of international and national law, and to draw attention on the consequences of the use of violence by a foreign army in territories inhabited by Congolese citizens. In international law, the use of armed force on the territory of a sovereign state is, in principle, prohibited. It is only legitimate in two cases: the invitation of the State concerned, in particular within the framework of defense agreements, or a UN mandate in application of Chapter VII of the UN Charter [18]. It is on the basis of this second exception that a UN force, MONUSCO, is deployed on Congolese soil with military and police contingents from 57 UN member states.
On the first condition, relating to the invitation, the Congolese state does not have a defense agreement with Rwanda, considered in Congolese opinion as an enemy state because of the wars of aggression and occupation waged against Congo since 1996. Wars marked by unspeakable atrocities listed in the 2010 Mapping Report[19]. Since then, no peace agreement has ever been signed between the two states to resolve this heavy past. Formally, at the level of the Kinshasa authorities, neither the parliament, the Prime Minister, nor President Tshisekedi have published an official document authorizing the deployment of Rwandan troops on Congolese soil. On the second condition relating to international law, the UN Security Council has not adopted any resolution authorizing Rwanda to deploy its armed forces on Congolese soil. We are therefore in the presence of an attempted military occupation of part of Congolese territory by a foreign army without an official mandate. The Rome Statute establishing the International Criminal Court, ratified by the DRC, considers military occupation as an international crime, the crime of aggression (Article 8 bis, paragraph a)[20]. In addition, the crimes that these Rwandan forces commit in Beni and in South Kivu are liable to prosecution before the International Criminal Court.
At the national level, the Congolese authorities, including President Félix Tshisekedi in person, who allegedly collaborated in this illegal Rwandan military intervention on Congolese soil, are liable to prosecution for the crime of high treason, under article 63 of the Constitution. It enshrines “the duty to safeguard the integrity of the national territory by all national, provincial, local and customary authorities”.
Conclusion : Kigali alongside the FARDC to destroy the Nande, neutralize MONUSCO, attack Uganda and Burundi and neutralize the RNC of Kayumba
If in South Kivu, Kagame is gradually gaining the upper hand over the RNC of Kayumba which is practically neutralized, its hidden war against Burundi is likely to take on other proportions in 2020.
The massacres against the Nande populations of North-Kivu would not, in my opinion, be motivated by a certain Islamist religious ideology, especially as the targets of the attackers do not directly concern the symbols of the State. What is clear is that the Nande represent the majority ethnic group in North Kivu, which has always dominated the economy of the region, notably opposing the regional hegemony of the Rwandophone populations. The Nande, who control most of the economic levers, undoubtedly disturb some leaders in the region, including former President Joseph Kabila who is hated by the Nande since his political divorce from Antipas Mbusa Nyamwisi in 2011. By overwhelmingly supporting Martin Fayulu in the 2018 elections, the Nande amplified their aversion to Kabila and sanctioned his dolphin Emmanuel Shadary. This is how the Beni massacres represent, according to our conviction, on the basis of our analyzes, a means for Kabila and for Kagame, in a conjunction of respective political and geopolitical interests, to support a false extremist armed group. The objective is to remove economic and political control of the region from the Nande by sowing disorder through the “alleged ADF” they created and which the two presidents maintain by their local henchmen. The repeated attacks on convoys of goods and the repeated assassinations of Nande traders on the Butembo-Beni- Kasindi-Uganda, Butembo-Beni-Bunia (Ituri) and Butembo-Goma roads clearly aim to stifle economically the two main areas of economic prosperity of Nande (Beni, Butembo and Oicha), which, in the long term, would facilitate their submission to the hegemonic and terrorial ambitions of Rwanda.
The camouflaged Rwandan presence also aims to use the Mai-Mai integrated into the army to attack Uganda under the ADF label and to attack MONUSCO positions, as during the attacks on the Tanzanian peacekeepers in 2015 and December 2017[21] in the event that the UN Security Council decides to actively involve the intervention brigade to put an end to the activities of the armed groups.
In this security imbloglio, the big loser is President Tshisekedi. The Congolese head of state who refuses to make an objective analysis of the situation in order to take effective measures expected by the entire Congolese population to pacify this area. On the contrary, he prefers to pursue the same strategic plan adopted by his predecessor, whose diplomatic positions were considered accommodating towards Rwanda. Kagame has a pathological geopolitical hegemonic fixation on the east of the DRC which serves as a mining cellar for exporting at low cost (removal of customs barriers) the products obtained from contraband mining in the DRC and making its economic profits more profitable[22]. Rwanda is eyeing the DRC, by exploiting unbalanced relations between on the one hand, the strong state that is Rwanda and on the other hand, the ruined state that is the DRC. This is part of a Rwandan strategy to consolidate its strategic interests in the DRC. Because the exploitation of mineral wealth in the east of the DRC is crucial for the budget balance of the Rwandan state, as well as for the personal enrichment of its politico-military elite[23]. During all the direct or proxy wars waged by Rwanda in the DRC from 1996-1997, several authors have demonstrated, beyond security motivations, that their primary motive was geoeconomic[24],,[25].
The other geostrategic motivation of Rwanda is to reinvest the eastern area of the DRC where its influence was steadily decreasing. In reality, Rwanda’s loss of influence in the DRC began gradually in 1998. It is since this year that Rwanda, through the rebellions it has supported in the DRC, is losing ground. Indeed, with the AFDL, Rwanda controlled the entire DRC. James Kabarebe, the current Kagame Military Advisor and former Minister of Defense of Rwanda, was also Chief of General Staff of the Congolese armed forces, the FAC. The creation of the RCD has enabled Rwanda to occupy the two Kivus, Maniema, part of the former Province Orientale and Katanga, or one third of Congolese territory. We can see that this space has shrunk. Between 2006 and 2009, the CNDP contented itself with Rutshuru and Masisi. Furthermore, before being driven out of the DRC, the M23 reigned only over half of the territory that the CNDP controlled. Since the defeat of the M23, Rwanda has seen its territorial military influence, despite elements infiltrated into the army and many of whom have died or aged, have shrunk drastically. Thus, the Beni massacres and the operations in progress are means to strengthen the Rwandan military presence and invest the territories rich in arable land and mineral resources.
It is these motivations that President Tshisekedi probably seems to ignore or in which he collaborates in double recognition to his political alliance with Kabila and to the significant regional support brought to him by Kagame during his highly contested election.
Jean-Jacques Wondo Omanyundu / DESC exclusivity
Notes
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrBRV6f0Rek.
[2] Africa Confidential , Vol.60, Nr12, June 14, 2019.
[3] Africa Confidential , Vol.60, Nr12, June 14, 2019.
[4] Uganda, Tanzania and Burundi
[5] https://afridesk.org/loffensive-militaire-baclee-menee-par-les-fardc-a-lest-de-la-rdc-tourne-au-desastre-jj-wondo/.
[6] The National Liberation Forces (FNL) is a Hutu rebellion movement still active in the civil war that has torn Burundi apart since 1994.
[7] RED-Tabara or Red Tabara, meaning Resistance for a Rule of Law in Burundi, is a Burundian armed faction which has been particularly active since the start of the political crisis in 2015. It opposes the regime in place of Pierre Nkurunziza as well as the militias in its service including the Imbonerakure.
[8] https://www.jeuneafrique.com/326011/politique/grands-lacs-contient-rapport-groupe-dexperts-rd-congo/.
[9] https://www.jeuneafrique.com/326011/politique/grands-lacs-contient-rapport-groupe-dexperts-rd-congo/.
[10] https://blog.kivusecurity.org/fr/omerta-sur-une-eventuelle-presence-des-forces-rwandaise-de-defense-dans-le-kivu/.
[11] https://7sur7.cd/2019/12/05/rdc-plus-de-700-mai-mai-se-sont-rendus-aux-fardc-pour-combattre-les-adf-beni.
[12] https://monusco.unmissions.org/nord-kivu-la-monusco-en-mission-d%E2%80%99%C3%A9valuation-s%C3%A9curitaire-%C3%A0-samboko- chani-chani-dans-la-r% C3% A9gion-de.
[13] https://www.kinflashinfo.com/index.php?page=detail&id=45.
[14] According to Boniface Musavuli, ” kinyabwisha ” does not exist. It’s Kinyarwanda. The populations of Rwandan origin, established for a long time in the Rutshuru territory, call themselves Banyabwisha just like the Banyamulenge in South Kivu to distinguish themselves from the “Banyarwanda” identity that has become too dirty. Hence, the “kinyabwisha”. In addition, he indicates that the ADF, even when they existed militarily in Beni, never had a presence in Kirumba, nor in kinyarwanda spoken ereas like Masisi and Rutshuru territories. These persons can no more be natives of Kirumba whose population talk in Kinande, not in Kinyarwanda.
[16] https://afridesk.org/loffensive-militaire-baclee-menee-par-les-fardc-a-lest-de-la-rdc-tourne-au-desastre-jj-wondo/.
[17] https://afridesk.org/quelles-motivations-strategiques-derriere-lenvoi-du-general-john-numbi-a-beni-jean-jacques-wondo/.
[18] Charter of the UN, https://www.un.org/fr/sections/un-charter/chapter-vii/index.html: If the Security Council identifies “a threat to peace, breach of peace or act of aggression”, it may “take the necessary measures to maintain or restore international peace and security”.
[19] Mapping Report, https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/CD/DRC_MAPPING_REPORT_FINAL_FR.pdf
[20] Rome Statute, https://www.icc-cpi.int/resource-library/Documents/RS-Fra.pdf
[21] http://afridesk.org/lattaque-des-casques-bleus-a-beni-la-revanche-rwandaise-sur-les-troupes-tanzaniennes/.
Recall that on December 7, 2017, an attack on a barracks of Tanzanian peacekeepers left fifteen people killed on the Tanzanian side, 59 wounded and three missing in the ranks of the FARDC and peacekeepers. The attackers had targeted a MONUSCO base held by a Tanzanian contingent near Semuliki River, according to UN sources, who added that the fighting had lasted three hours. This attack follows a previous attack by Tanzanian peacekeepers on October 9, 2015 during an assault on a MONUSCO base in the Beni region, east of DR Congo. The preliminary analysis of the modus operandi of this attack excludes participation by the ADF.
[22] http://afridesk.org/ladhesion-de-la-rdc-dans-leac-les-raisons-dun-agenda-geostrategique-cache-dicte-par-le-rwanda-jj-wondo/.
[23] Kris Berwouts, (former Director of EurAc: The European Network for Central Africa) “A semblance of a state in ruins”, Mission report to the DRC – EurAc. www.eurac-network.org/web/uploads/documents/20100209.
[24] The geo-economy makes the economy one of the foundations of power, alongside the military, diplomatic and symbolic forces. It seems obvious that economic interests, conflicts over access to resources and powers linked to wealth controls are essential determinants of power relations and conflicts. Economic issues are at the heart of petroleum, energy and environmental geopolitics. The capture of security, democratic and economic rents are the basis of political games and strategies. Philippe Hugon, Géopolitique de l’Afrique, 3è Ed., Sedes, Paris, Septembre 2012, p.104.
[25] Presentation by Masako Yonekawa ( Rikkyo University – Japan), Defective and prolonged nature of contemporary conflicts and the pacification process in the DRC. Symposium of the Circle of Congolese Economists, Brussels, November 04, 2017.
