Elections or chaos? It will be rather war for Kabila
By Jean-Jacques Wondo Omanyundu
At the time where Kabila pretended to present a dolphin, as a result of strong pressure, particularly from Angola for SADC, Rwanda [1], the France and the United States, it is actually to the war that he intends to focus its main strategy of conservation of power. This article compiles some information tending to show that Joseph Kabila is trying to spread conflict a bit everywhere in the DRC to impose one political agenda other than elections scheduled for December on the Congolese 2018.
Kabila is recruiting fighters and former rebels Rwandophone closed to M23 to the East of the DRC
Several Congolese military and civilian sources, and others close to the ex-rebellion of the M23 confirm the recruitment and arming of M23 veterans stationed in Kampala by Major General Delphin Kayimbi (or Kahimbi), the new Deputy Chief of the FARDC General Staff for Intelligence.
On the ground, these recruitment operations are entrusted to François Rocogoza, cadre of the “Alliance pour le Salut du Peuple” : Alliance for the Salvation of the People (ASP), a dissident faction of the M23 led by the former M23 military leader Jean-Marie Runiga, exiled to Rwanda , and to Colonel Isaiah Munyakazi Sengi. François Rocogoza was the head of the M23 delegation during the Kampala talks between the M23 and the Congolese authorities in 2012 – 2013. The ASP was approved as a political party in the DRC by a ministerial decree of May 30, 2016 and is a member of the MP. Colonel Isaiah Munyakazi Sengi, a former CNDP rebel who joined the M23, led the 83rd FARDC battalion. Some fighters are already incorporated into FARDC units in North Kivu. Others would be transferred to Salamabila, in Kabambare territory, in Maniema province. In this community, where the facilities of the Canadian mining company BANRO Mining are located, there is Lieutenant-Colonel Gaston, former Commander of the battalion led by General Bosco Ntaganda. Coming from Rwanda since May 2017, Gaston is currently commanding the FARDC battalion based in Salamabila, which fights the Mai-Mai Malaïka.
On land, these recruitment operations entrusted to François Rocogoza and colonel Isaiah Munyakazi Sengi. François Rocogoza was the head of the delegation of the M23 at the talks in Kampala between the M23 and the Congolese authorities in 2012-2013. The colonel Esaïe Munyakazi Sengi, ex-rebel CNDP who joined the M23, led the 83th battalion of FARDC. Some fighters are already incorporated in the units of the FARDC in North Kivu. Others would be transferred to Salamabila, in the Kabambare territory, in the province of Maniema. In this locality, where the facilities of the Canadian mining company, BANRO Mining there named Col. Gaston, former Commander of the Battalion led by general Bosco Ntaganda. Come to Rwanda since may 2017, Gaston currently command the FARDC battalion based in Salamabila, which fights the Mayi – Mayi Malaika. Gaston would be killed in the fighting according to some sources.
Of different M23 fighters recruited by general Kayimbi supervised by Lieutenant-Colonel Douglas Kiroko Mberamiheto, based in Kinshasa. The latter depends directly on the general Kayimbi without referring to other organic structures of the FARDC. It is important to note that Douglas Kiroko Mberamiheto benefited from the amnesty granted by Joseph Kabila to the M23 rebels in 2014[2].
According to the latest news, an attempt by the Kabila regime to repatriate other M23 / Runiga fighters from Kabungo camp in Kigali has failed. Runiga denied Kinshasa’s offer to accuse it of honoring its past commitments to peace agreements other than political ones, including the New Year’s Eve Agreement aimed at creating a peaceful and consensual political electoral election, transparent and inclusive. (See picture below)
Already in 2016, Human Rights Watch reported on the recruitment of fighters M23, incorporated within the units of the FARDC and the PNC to punish violently the peaceful demonstrators who were calling for the holding of fair and transparent elections as well as the respect for the Constitution by Joseph Kabila. These fighters were placed under the supervision of the general ex-CNDP Kabundi, formerly based in Kisangani and the colonel Innocent Gahizi, very close to the Rwandan army, which have coordinated operations. Some of these ex – M23 has even spent the night in one of the residences of the general Gahizi, towards Maluku[3]. Other elements of the M23 had been incorporated within the units under the command direct general Gabriel Amisi Tango Four, then Commander of the first area in defence of the FARDC, in the western part of the country. Gabriel Amisi is known particularly for playing a negative role when taking Goma by the M23 in November 2012.
Other ex-CNDP fighters relocated to Lubumbashi after the agreement of March 23, 2009 and settled at the place called “Carrefour” under the discreet supervision of General John Numbi, are transferred to Kinshasa since the appointment of Numbi to the post of Inspector General of the army in Kinshasa. They are quartered at the base of the Republican Guard (GR) of Kibomango, in eastern Kinshasa and recycled by the GR. Well equipped and paid, they form a new special unit called “Owl Battalion”, responsible for targeted executions in the capital.
In July 2018, Joseph Kabila has named the general Gahizi to the post of Deputy Commander of the operations and information at the 34th Military Region covering North Kivu. The rwandophone Innocent Kabundi Munyanziza general became Assistant Commander operations and information from the operational sector Ituri to Bunia, in Eastern operations. The general Honoré Hamuli Tchiviri (Civiri), former Commander of the 3306th regiment of infantry of the FARDC and the rebel RCD-Goma, is named Assistant Commander operations and information in the sector operational Bunia. For several months, the Ituri Province faced an abnormal concentration of the soldiers of the old rebellions of the CNDP.
Since 2012, every time that Kabila is in trouble on the plan policy, the M23 arises with threatening political misrepresentation for the resumption of hostilities. Everyone knows that Kabila and the rebellions of foreign origin created in the DRC have always pursued the same goal, the destabilization of the East of the DRC. It is in this context that we should understand the recent threats of the M23 to resume the war if the elections are not inclusive[4]. The same M23, convinced that the difficulties of Kabila, consecutive to the deep crisis of legitimacy after the fraudulent election of 2011 which he was declared the winner, had part of its claims, the struggle for the truth of the ballot box[5], to try to lure in vain Etienne Tshisekedi and the UDPS[6].
Indeed, each period of crisis political acute in DRC, we see that the M23, an ally of Kabila, is subtly illustrated in claims against the regime of the latter. His grievances resemble is deceptively claims at the time of the political opposition, civil society and the so-called forces acquired to change. Yet, their common goal of immutable (M23, Kabila and allies) remains to maintain in Kinshasa (-) power naively accepted by the Congolese, but who still owe (militarily) to facilitate their exploitation of natural resources the East of the Congo for the benefit of their regional support.
The strategic purpose of this rhetoric is to start from scratch a new cycle of the AFDL type with new actors from the East who will continue to share power with the Congolese continuously without that they don’t have actually the areas of the imperium. Undergraduate afdelien of 20 years touching at the end, it must then pretend to renew the leaders and political discourse. The speech of the liberation of the Congo by Kabila, father and ‘son’ is actually out of breath and does more recipe. Where, he must make a speech corresponding to claims citizens and political of the moment: Elections transparent and inclusive, political tension, full compliance with the agreement of the eve, etc.? A speech likely to appeal to a Congolese, starting with the politicians and who would take the bait. It should be (so) that in the background, the objective of the M23 is invariably the same as the underlying objectives that led the AFDL, RCD-Goma and the CNDP, including occupation of the DRC attempts, taking control of its part useful and profitable located to the East of the country.
It of trying to remake the M23 in a nebulous communication trying to seduce politically a certain public opinion and political of the Congolese opposition. But the goal of this maneuver is to discredit the struggle of these opponents with Congolese public opinion which is more ready to support a new military adventure of the type of AFDL in DRC. Besides, in terms of firepower and ability to conduct a major military offensive, the M23, since its debacle in November 2013, has neither enough fighters, estimated at a few hundred men only, and no materials capable of conquering the DRC or to dislodge its ally Kabila in Kinshasa. All these strategies developed by this rebel movement, become a kind of scarecrow, constitute a bidding war for its survival in a Congo where his godfather loses little by little its former influence and where the departure of Kabila could initiate a start of remodeling geo-political balances in the region.
Elie Kapend manipulated by Demiap to credit the thesis of the destabilization of the regime
The picture broadcast by TV5 on 21 August 2018 showing Elijah Kapend threatening to do away with the Kabila regime[7] sparked a bunch of reactions in public opinion. This former Katangan Constable was at the head of the demobilized Katangan ex-gendarmes installed at Mitendi to mount-now in the western suburbs of Kinshasa to Bas-Congo. It is us the Congolese military information that these demobilized are supported with funding from the military House of Joseph Kabila. This is indeed Jean-Claude Yav major general and colonel Arthur Nziam Dinh (a lunda as Yav) dealing with these elements monitored by 1003th regiment of infantry of the 1era Zone of defence of the FARDC. This unit is deployed around the vast concession Mitendi where are stationed since 2005 the ex-Tigres, their families and dependents as well as Elijah Kapend who has a residence on site to supervise these men with the permission of the military authorities Congolese.
About Elijah Kapend, he should know that he even stayed at the prison of Ndolo between 2006 and 2010, then released, as Gideon Kyungu, during the election period to 2011. Not having found satisfaction, he began to make threats against the Congolese authorities. He will be again returned to prison in Ndolo between 2012 and 2015 after agreeing to collaborate with the Kabila regime and to lead a European tour to try to convince “fighters” of the diaspora of the need to conduct an armed struggle against Kabila question of bait. But the man gets back in the DRC otherwise unmolested by security services. What is surprising is the ease with which TV5 has prepared this report in Kinshasa while the country, particularly the capital Kinshasa and its environs, is squared militarily and lives a kind of State of emergency that does not say his name. In addition, particularly Western media are monitored, or even censored unceremoniously by the Kabila regime. By this report, the intelligence plan was to show that the country was facing an imminent security threat to justify certain political measures to sabotage the electoral process. It is that when we took apart this deception on social networks by demonstrating the collusion between Elijah Kapend and the Kabila regime, the ANR was quick to incarcerate him, pretending that it is foreign to this crude montage.
How could the Congolese authorities let stand a popular demonstration of a supposed character anti-regime and advocating armed struggle as a means to fight Kabila so that peaceful protests of young people of citizen movements such as La Lucha, calling just for credible and inclusive elections are systematically repressed with absurd and unheard-of violence? This is the case of the peaceful March of the struggle against the voting machine, organized in Goma, very violently repressed on 3 September 2018[8].
It should also be recalled that in 2016, the Kabila regime had tried to do the same thing with fake Bundu dia Kongo wearing headbands and Red Berets at the head, in the image of the Kamwina Nsapu. These berets resembled similar to those of the young militiamen from the PPRD maintained by the Minister of the Interior Henri Mova Sankanyi, then general Secretary of the PPRD.
Stuck politically and militarily after its abandonment forced to run for a third term, Joseph Kabila has only the military option to set ablaze the Congo, impose a chaos in order to postpone the elections or to sabotage the election process which he can’t be a candidate.
By manipulating these demobilized that probably were used in 2016 to infiltrate peaceful protest, Kabila plans to create unrest in Kinshasa. The other part of the country where he plans to revive conflicts rest space of the large not yet completely pacified Kasai. In Katanga, the seeds of an intraprovincial conflict are already present. In Bandundu, the Enigma of false cattlemen from the East is still not resolved while the Kongo Central remains under close supervision of the ex-miliciens rebel CNDP deployed in that part of the territory. The former Eastern Province is currently a cycle of bloody inter-ethnic violence. The presence of the general Akili Muhindo said Mundos in South Kivu presages a confrontational shift in the province already plagued by conflicts since 2016. Thus, all the ingredients of an explosive cocktail put little pushing little in place to ignite the Congo, Joseph Kabila, who has nothing to lose to introduce a State of emergency or exceptional and operate a coup on the ground to restore order in the country.
In Katanga, the ANR shakes the separatist fiber, it could be the same at the Equator
Since the Kabila regime prevented twice the Moïse Katumbi opponent to return to DRC in early August 2018, we attend several statements and broadcasts of the documents of the people manipulated by the ANR threatening to secede in Katanga. This is the case of the declaration of a certain Foundation of Katangese youth leader promising that there will be no elections in DRC without a candidate of Katanga[9]. But the individual was quickly contradicted and cropped by the representative of the youth of the whole, the electoral coalition led by Moïse Katumbi. Same is true of the below document circulating on social networks.
The ploy behind all of these fixtures is to encourage some idle violence by trying to blame the opponents of Kabila. Yet, Katanga is totally controlled by the security services placed on the direct orders of general John Numbi who manipulates several armed groups, including the separatist militia Bakata Katanga led by Gideon Kyungu Mutanda, the great criminal of war sentenced to death for crimes against humanity by a court-martial in March 2009, held then escaped in 2011 before being welcomed in pumps by the province in October 2016[10], either two months before the end of the constitutional term of Joseph Kabila. Amnestied with his men, Gideon Kyungu now works in collusion with the Kabila regime, particularly in the atrocities committed in the Central Kasai in 2017.
Reminder, it is the general John Numbi who had arranged the escape of Gideon Kyungu in September 2011, on instructions from president Kabila, despite the vain promise made by the Governor Moïse Katumbi to offer $100,000 to anyone who would deliver Gideon Kyungu (the head of the Zambia Katanga) at the hands of the judicial authorities[11].
It is also possible that in the next few weeks, we have witnessed in the operations of Ecuador, stronghold of Senator Jean-Pierre Bemba recently invalidated by the Constitutional Court, to militaristic inclinations, manipulated by the regime of Kabila and his intelligence services, similar to what they do in Katanga. Simply observe attempts to provocations of José Makila and its allies in the direction of the MLC and its activists to Gemena to understand that the sparks are in air to attribute the cause of the fire to Jean-Pierre Bemba and his party.
Behind all that, Kabila developed what I call strategy of planned and orderly disorder, and no strategy of chaos often used awkwardly to give this concept a force emotional emotional not corresponding to reality in order to mobilize the sensory and emotional public reaction. It is for us to use of a term tinged with a magnified emotional connotation. As a situation of chaos implies that neither the originator of chaos nor the structure under chaos control over nothing, as is the case in some corners of the Syria of the Libya or the Afghanistan. Which is not the case in the DRC where rampant conflicts armed low-intensity, cynically attises and controlled remotely by strategists neoliberal and oriented to the specific purposes mercantilist[12], without losing control as elsewhere.
In the specific case of the current political situation in the DRC, the disorder programmed and ordered that the Kabila regime is planning strategy to lead astray the electoral process to impose a new political order in which there will be the master of the game policy. Indeed, even if Kabila is not in the presidential election, which there is not yet the certainty it will be, it has never formally said he will leave power. A clue, he said at the SADC Summit which follows: ” as I hate to say goodbye, I prefer not to say farewell, but tell you soon . ».
Conclusion
At the time where the UN prepares for its general assembly, a triple pressure popular, political and international, especially that of States in the region who have managed to get the no representation of Kabila in the next presidential election, must intensify if we really want to save the process electoral and him ensure an inclusive and transparent character. This pressure should particularly focus on increased oversight of the M23 fighters in the border countries of the DRC, on former rebels of the CNDP embedded in the army, on the various armed groups, on the young people and demobilized idle people spread all over the country to which the Kabila regime may use to plunge the DRC into a violent cycle of war. All this will certainly jeopardize the peaceful conduct of the electoral process credible and inclusive by the Congolese people and their international partners, and all efforts to stabilize Congo granted by international since almost 20 years.
Jean-Jacques Wondo Omanyundu/exclusive DESC
References
[1] http://ktpress.rw/2018/08/kagame-wants-sadc-to-handle-elections-in-drc/
[2] http://www.nyota.net/2014/04/21/m23-arp-galcd-amnistie-premiere-liste/.
[3] JJ Wondo, La guerre, ce sera certainement la continuation du glissement de Kabila par d’autres moyens. DESC, 20 octobre 2017. http://afridesk.org/fr/guerre-sera-certainement-continuation-glissement-de-kabila-dautres-moyens-jj-wondo/.
[4] http://7sur7.cd/new/rdc-le-m23-menace-de-reprendre-la-guerre-si-les-elections-ne-sont-pas-inclusives/
[5] http://www.jeuneafrique.com/172857/politique/roger-lumbala-je-soutiens-le-m23-qui-m-ne-une-lutte-arm-e-contre-le-r-gime-de-joseph-kabila/.
[6] http://fr.igihe.com/spip.php?page=mv2_article&id_article=2490.
[7] https://afrique.tv5monde.com/information/video-ultimatum-de-lafdl-kabila-en-rdc.
[8] https://www.radiookapi.net/2018/09/03/actualite/politique/nord-kivu-15-militants-blesses-lors-de-la-repression-de-la-marche-de
[9] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hD1YmmeZ1mQ.
[10] http://www.jeuneafrique.com/364688/politique/rd-congo-surprenante-reddition-chef-milicien-gedeon-a-lubumbashi/.
[11] http://afridesk.org/fr/rdc-quelle-analyse-faire-de-la-reddition-de-gedeon-kyungu-le-chef-des-bakata-katanga-jj-wondo/.
[12] Laurent Gayer, « Ni guerre ni paix : guerres sans fin(s) ou désordres ordonnés. », in Nouvelles guerres. L’état du monde 2015, La Découverte, Paris, 2014, pp. 54-67.
