DRC : Is Kabila credible in his proposal of national dialogue ?
By Jean-Jacques Wondo Omanyundu
The national and international press reports that “Congolese President Joseph Kabila has proposed to the UN the names of four personalities capable of ensuring international mediation in the “national dialogue” in order “to peaceful elections” that he wants to launch nearly one year the deadline for the presidential election, we learned Saturday from government source.”
Four names of potential mediators have been proposed by Mr. Kabila in a letter sent to New York to the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon by the Congolese Minister of Foreign Affairs, Raymond Tshibanda, to mediate the national dialogue. These are the former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, the Angolan President Eduardo Dos Santos, the President of the Senegalese National Assembly, Moustapha Niasse, and the UN special envoy for the Great Lakes, Said Djinnit [1].
It should be recalled that the designation of a foreign mediator is one of the requirements in the roadmap of the UDPS, the party of the historic opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi, to participate in the “national dialogue” proposed by Kabila.
This analysis tends to show the information obtained by DESC in the entourage of the Congolese President and actions of the Kabila regime for some time, factual information, sometimes contradictory, that happen to be likely to question the sincerity of the approach initiated by Joseph Kabila.
Is it a dialogue that is part of the framework agreement signed by Kabila in Addis Ababa?
This question which, a priori, may seem naive, finds its relevance when it comes to define the dialogue and its agenda. Especially since, if he proposes names, no indication was given as to whether this dialogue is part of the Framework Agreement of Addis Ababa and Resolution 2098 of the United Nations Security Council.
As a reminder, under the Agreement of Addis Ababa, the Congolese government had to agree to a political opening and submit to national and international assessment in the following areas : To continue, and deepen security sector reform, particularly with respect to the Army and Police ;
- To consolidate State authority, particularly in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, including to prevent armed groups from destabilizing neighbouring countries ;
- To make progress with regard to decentralization ;
- To further econoinic development, including with respect to the expansion of infrastructure and basic social service delivery ;
- To further structural reform of Government institutions, including fi n one i al reform; and
- To further the agenda of reconciliation, tolerance and dernocratization.
Based on the framework agreement of Addis Ababa, the Resolution 2098 imputes to the Congolese Government, among others, the responsibility “in the first place (…) of national reconciliation and consolidation of peace …” [2]. It also urges the Government to “ remain fully committed to the implementation of the Framework Agreement and the protection of civilians by acquiring professional security forces, responsible and sustainable …”
Point 14 b) of Resolution 2098 “calls upon the Special Representative for the Democratic Republic of Congo to fulfill, through its good offices to promote a transparent and inclusive political dialogue among all Congolese stakeholders to foster reconciliation and democratization and promote the organization of credible and transparent provincial and local elections. ”
Under Article 69 of the Constitution of the DRC :
“The President of the Republic is the Head of State. He represents the nation and is the symbol of national unity.
He ensures the respect of the Constitution.
He ensures, through his arbitration, the proper functioning of the public authorities and institutions as well as the continuity of the State. He is the guarantor of national independence, territorial integrity, national sovereignty and the observance of international treaties and agreements. “
By signing the framework agreement, Kabila should naturally comply with the requirements of Article 69 of the Constitution which prompted “respect of international treaties and agreements.”
Indeed, Article 215 of the Constitution states : “The duly concluded treaties and international agreements have, upon publication, a higher normative value to that of laws …”.
This Article 215 of the Constitution actually gives the Framework Agreement a higher normative value to Congolese laws. Therefore, in its capacity as guarantor of the proper functioning of the State (Article 69), Kabila had no other option but to comply to respect the Framework Agreement and therefore to respect the Constitution.
However, on May 13, 2015, Kabila met in his presidential farm Kingakati-Buene his members of the Presidential Majority Political Bureau to clarify the agenda of the dialogue that was inconsistent with that of the Framework Agreement. In front of his troops, Joseph Kabila said he will “organize dialogue to preserve peace and security, sustaining economic stability and create regulatory requirements of the electoral process.” To do so, he found no better than to choose a henchman, the boss of the Congolese civilian intelligence (ANR), the dreaded Kalev Mutond, an official of the State in addition, and the bane of opponents, to conduct consultations with opponents, leaders of civil society and other [3]. What could be more normal to create distrust of his interlocutors. The approach has fizzled.
Until then, Kabila navigates between the talking and the fighting
In a previous analysis, we have stigmatized the lack of political will to Kabila and his regime to allow a peaceful democratic transfer of power in the DRC. Under the headline « Dialogue de dupes Kabila – opposition et société civile : Rien que du ‘fighting and talking’ » [4], we have shown that when he fails in the repression of populations (fithing), he tries to negotiate (talking) to continue his policy otherwise. Thus, aware that he no longer has sufficient room for political and diplomatic maneuver, and after the failure of the military crackdown in January with resistance of a given population has not declined, Kabila, almost back to the wall, increasingly isolated even within his own political camp following the recent defections of senior executives of his political platform, seems to resort to dialogue to try a little bit to recover the political game in his favor. But deep down and actually moving, the purpose and the ins and outs of his approach seem invariably remain the same : to remain in control of the DRC beyond his last presidential term in 2016 [5].
Some attempts to stay in power, led by Kabila and his regime
In September 2013, Kabila organizes major national consultations pumps that led to more than 600 resolutions. During the consultations closing ceremony, Kabila said in his make resolutions that were extracted. So far, over 95% of the recommendations have never been implemented. And the President has never publicly explained this breach of his pledged word !
After the implementation of the resolutions consultations fail for lack of popular and political opposition accession, Kabila will start or will push his peers of his political platform to launch sometime in 2014 an internal debate on the revision of the Constitution. Spearhead this initiative was the interior minister, Evariste Boshab, then secretary general of the PPRD. Rather than reaping the expected results, the debate was cut short, going even trigger the first cracks in the Presidential Majority, breaking its internal cohesion, when Kabila ran unsuccessfully behind a national unity that eludes him following elections fraudulent 2011 who spent almost the illegitimacy of his power.
The combat government set up, with the intrepid Boshab the Interior and Security to address both the political actors and the population was constituted for this purpose. But the political awakening of the Congolese population and the pressure and lucidity of its diaspora, via social networks and NICT have thwarted this plan [6].
Incidentally, The Telegram Congo had written: “The violins do not agree within the presidential majority. ‘” “While the people were used to the controversy between supporters of the revision of the Constitution of the presidential camp and fierce opponents of the policy supported by the civil society opposition, an unexpected comes to upset this classic dialectic scheme. Indeed, the Social Movement for Renewal, MSR, dear Pierre Lumbiparty and second major political force of the Presidential Majority has launched a real cat among the pigeons by clearly deviating from the general route previously drawn. His latest position on the subject of the controversy has had the distinction and merit to divert all members of his political family and take short opponents and the people. According to this political organization, for any one who can read between the lines, in early launching the debate on whether or not to change the Basic Law, the Presidential Majority party task quickly and burned subconsciously steps … Therefore, it generated a situation that causes more problems than it provides solutions to urgent and important general concerns “ [7].
In the wake of this debate, the barrister Jean-Claude Muyambo, had spoken to the press vehemently against a third consecutive term of Joseph Kabila and against any revision of the Constitution, criticizing the failure of the presidential program called “The revolution of modernity “ [8], before defecting to the Presidential Majority to rally the opposition afterwards. This posture would probably be at the basis of his current legal troubles because the Kabila regime is customary to operationalization and militarization of justice for his own political purposes [9].
After the failure of the draft revision of the Constitution, the Kabila regime in a plane called “ENIGMA” [10], will come back subtly in battle, or load, through the draft electoral law that conditioned the organization of elections for the implementation of the population census so as to devote the sliding of the electoral process. This strategy, ENIGMA, whose DESC was aware, is to develop an arsenal of fireworks legal, judicial, political, administrative and military following a triple political component, military and diplomatic, without affecting the constitutional amendment. The legal cornerstone of the ENIGMA was the draft electoral law that conditioned the holding of presidential election in organizing the census, so as to cause slippage of the electoral calendar beyond 2016 [11].
So the ENIGMA plan aims to get everyone with a “fait accompli” of “slippage” and bring Kabila to invoke the Constitution which provides that the Head of State remains in office until the election of the new president. The other idea behind this project is to bring to the technical impossibility of organizing elections observation and to impose on all a political compromise by the establishment of a new period of political transition (and a government of national unity), which would put the counters. This in order not only to boost Kabila in politics, but also allow him to keep hold of the end of his last term in December 2016 and restart it in the next electoral race.
But they did not count in the determination of the Congolese interior and the Diaspora who, in a kind of national unity, have risen from across the country to say no to Kabila and his regime. Given this determination, Kabila is fighting to suppress use of blood and its disproportionately protesters[12]. He even regretted that his security services do not have enough done [13].
Faced with the failure of the repression of the population, President Kabila agreed Wednesday, January 21, 2015 the principle of a dialogue with the opposition. But the exchanges undertaken by DESC in the evening of the same on Wednesday with several people introduced in the presidential circle call mistrust. Indeed, whenever politically Kabila feels cornered or threatened, he uses by military or judicial means, such as means to pursue its policy and consolidate power. This is a Rwandan-inspired strategy highlighted by several analysts. In the Rwandan strategy of “fighting and talking” [14], the policy is by force. And when it is put into difficulty, recourse to negotiation to save time and entertain his opponent time to perk up militarily. Once we find her strength, pushed negotiations to failure to continue the policy by force or arms. For our source: “The boss is distraught and pressurized by Angola and the West. He is particularly distraught that his initial safety device consisting to stifle the disputes in the bud at the base failed. He accepts the principle of fair negotiations to buy time to reflect with his Russian advisers FSB to set up a new tactic. This tactic relates only to the restoration of order by force to take things in hand and grab the psychological ascendancy over the population by Terreu r ” [15].
The wake-up Patriotic Congolese has thwarted the election slip, but Kabila does not disarm. It seems to save time with this new dialogue, the format is not cleared to return with strength as indicated by the information mentioned in the next point.
While he tends carrot dialogue, Kabila prepares the stick of repression by equipping the GR
Since the events of January, the city of Kinshasa is squared by the Republican Guard elements reinforced by four regiments [16] commandos trained by the Chinese. He divided them in the four districts of the capital (Tshangu, Funa, Lukunga and Mont Amba). The Kinshasa who are not distracted by the music, can see these military patrols and police not circulating in the streets of the capital. Yet the country is not placed in emergency state which we detailed the specifics in a recent analysis [17].
Indeed, it is our cross-checked several sources for Kabila, only the showdown is the best strategy to take things in hand, he was at the cost of human lives. Thus, in this perspective to the DRC not, we collected a mass of reports of over-militarization of the Presidential Guard (GR) and the massive purchase of weapons and ammunition for the benefit of the GR so to quell any attempt to very violent popular revolt.
Russia offers three jeeps and Olenga Kabila to secure their communications with the troops
Two sources of airway Authority (RVA) and the General Staff of the Air Force [18] have reported having seen at Ndjili airport, military side, as of November 7, 2015, the presence of a cargo plane of the Russian Air Force Antonov-72 for brand came directly of Russia with “a personal gift for the boss Vladimir Putin and General Olenga, the chief of personal staff Kabila”. This gift consisted of three jeeps Toyota land-cruiser armored VIPV8. A Congolese military source has quietly inspected the jeeps to know the technical features, power and technology on board these vehicles. He detailed that we board these vehicles, there is a control system Glonass [19] (equivalent to the GPS but Russian version) and fixed satellite phones Iridium encrypted for calls and communicate tactically with the various forces or units. There is a station Codan HF (high frequency) [20] 125 watts [21]with a wide band of 1.6 to 30 mhz able to communicate simultaneously with 100 channels of communication : the case of General Staff to the infantry section and Mbau (operational section in Beni, for example ).
What is the purpose of all these materials?
To our question as to what should serve three jeeps came from Russia, one source reported that these vehicles are intended for specialcommunications short and medium distance of the President and his military staff. They will be connected to a Motorola automaticrelay 3000 45 Watt VHF frequency mhz 133-175 (MHz). And the source tell us : “Both of these jeeps belong to the boss and the other belongs to the general Olenga. These are gifts given by Russia to the DRC as a thank you for purchasing Russian military hardware many in recent years, that is to say just after Angola and Ethiopia in Black Africa ” .
“The communications equipment acquired will enable the bosses to be in constant contact with his close associates and commanders of major units bypassing the terminals (stations) that are very usual heard by MONUSCO and Western embassies (USA mainly through NSA antennas deployed in Kinshasa). ”
Israeli drones stored Kibomango
Another source of the Republican Guard has also informed us that Kabila has bought Israeli drones it has stored at the training center and barracks of the GR element Kibomango [22], located on the National 1 to Kinkole in the common Nsele, East of Kinshasa.
These drones delivered in early October 2015 by Israel via the Israeli society of private security BTS (Beni Tal Security) [23] including UAV [24](means drones) type searcher [25], unarmed drones and lightweight mini-UAV types bird eye 600 [26] – has an operating range (range) 10 Km – also unarmed. It has a flight range of about 2 hours.
According to our sources on site, 24 Israeli engineers of the firm BTS are currently in DRC for the implementation of these devices. Furthermore, 68 pilots and mechanics Congolese these drones are now at Eilat in Israel since August 2015 months to follow specific training in their use. The head of military intelligence, General Jean Claude Yav Kabej, regularly goes to Israel to inquire about the monitoring of this strategic program for the boss to maturity of its term expires in 2016.
It should be remembered that DESC has already reported the installation of interception of communications device targeted people and organizations by the Random system plays delivered by Israeli [27]. Random This listening system supports priority foreign diplomatic personalities deemed hostile to the regime as MONUSCO and Radio Okapi, organizations dependent on the United Nations System High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), UNDP, Joint Office UN Human Rights Office (UNJHRO), International Organization for Migration (IOM), NGOs such as Human Rights Watch (HRW), Western embassies : USA, Canada, countries of the European Union and the embassies of countries neighboring DRC. It also targets the civilian and military authorities of the DRC : the Presidents of the National Assembly and Senate as well as members of their respective offices; the Prime Minister and all members of the government, provincial governors, the different military authorities who have a command post as Chief of General Staff and his deputies, chiefs of staff of the various components the army, the commanders of the defense zones, heads of departments of the Ministry of Defence / and the General Staff of the FARDC, councilors and members of the cabinet of the Minister of Defence and the sovereign ministries, commanders of military regions and the commanders of major units. Important personalities of the Congolese opposition, civil society (Ashado, VSV, Lucha, …) and even the Presidential Majority (MP) are also tapped. It also follows the officers of large public and private enterprises, senior judges, members of CENCO (Catholic bishops).
These drones why ? Against opponents and the enemy who freely walks the eastern DRC ?
To this question, a presidential military source replied : “Against opponents as of January 2015 events took the tennis Kabila regime and I also, I sincerely confess while the eve of the events I have shared with you the determination of our leaders to reduce this event in silence. And since then the boss told his staff : Never again Thus Israeli experts who are used to manage violent crowds with the intifada in the occupied territories, have come to Kinshasa to assess the situation and learn from January 2015. This, because the cities of Kinshasa and Goma were mainly raised by using astrategy to increase of tension in order to disperse the security forces and their crumbling power of action. He got that in January, the presidential military staff found that the forces deployed on the ground, once dispersed to extinguish several outbreaks of disorder, they found themselves at a disadvantage (understaffed) against several thousand demonstrators. The police crackdown on demonstrators and were therefore forced to land in several places by abandoning the field to the protesters, probably advised by experts who know the public order maintenance techniques. Thus, to avoid the consolidation of subversive cores, permanent aerial surveillance drones in these Kinshasa, day or night, is required to identify potential outbreaks of subversive and neutralize, if necessary, even before that they reach the maximum number of five protesters.
Israeli instructors are also at the center of Kipopo instruction about 20-30 Km (northwest) [28] of Lubumbashi in the Haut Katanga on the road to form Sakanya ants 2016 (specialized infantry units in urban warfare and counter-terrorism).
Kabila forms 5000 “ants and bees for 2016” and recycles 3000 former military at Kibomango
Still in Kibomango, Kabila forms part of the 5000 recruits nicknamed “Ants and bees for 2016″. Others are mainly in Katanga. They will complete their training in 2016. During the jogging exercise (jogging), “these recruits sing and dance the arms in hand they will pay their blood for the Boss (not for the country), even if the DRC is to be transformed in a large cemetery. ”
On the same site of Kibomango, residents tell us that the GR train regularly in exercises of fire with the Russian T-80 tanks recently delivered [29] in favor of GR and not the regular army and the new armored vehicles firing exercises Praga and BMP-2 bought recently in Serbia. Another presidential source tells us that “the Serbian Military Technical Mission was warmly welcomed by the boss to availability. They come to ensure successful monitoring and maintenance and servicing of equipment each quarter. They are currently in Kinshasa. ”
Besides the “ants and bees for 2016″, there are about 3000 young soldiers from the 2012-2013 recruitment, which were formed in the instruction center Lokandu in Maniema and just arrived in Kibomango order to be recycled by Egyptian instructors to serve in the GR. This quota whose soldiers come from all provinces of the DRC is put at the disposal of the Commander of the Republican Guard, General Ilunga Kampete to restructure this body, a source of military intelligence Congolese should not be mono-ethnic (Katanga) and possibly enhance GR, especially in the former Katanga where we fear serious disturbances in 2016. This is particularly strengthen the special 11th Infantry Brigade GR Kimbembe camp Lubumbashi, where there were military defections. The choice of the troops, mostly non Katanga, results from the analysis that they will be ruthless when it comes to go repress Katanga. But this option also results from the division of Katangan troops Kimbembe camp established by the General Kampete Ilunga, who stayed for two months since the defection of Lieutenant Kinda (Kilo) and his company in late September 2015 [30]. We will soon return to the first report of mission of the alarming state of the troops quartered in the camp Kimbembe developed by the Republican Guard commander who established his headquarters there. While in Katanga, he lived in a luxurious villa in the Golf neighborhood in Lubumbashi. General Ilunga Kampete in its inspection mission, found the troops divided on ethnic lines between Balubakat the Kalundas the Tchokwe the Bemba, the Lamba, the Tabua Moba. The report mentions that “the morale of the GR units stationed in the former Katanga is very low.”
The latest news we have received of airport sources and the Air Force, the Commander of the GR regained Kinshasa on Tuesday, November 24, 2015 in a special made by a type Boeing 727 commonly known as FARDC ‘Zero Tolerance’ ‘ after having restored order to the Gr based in Katanga. We will return in more detail in a later analysis.
A Kingakati and Mbakana, Kabila stores of urban fighting equipment against the population with the help of the Russians and North Koreans
At his residence in Kingakati-Buene, Kabila stored armored vehicles PVB [31] Divdori 2 Georgian brand, purchased recently. A source of the commissariat, “these devices will be used to strengthen the urban intervention units and expand the presidential escort boss. ”
On the military strategic site of the GR Mbankana [32], which are deployed including surface to air missiles and ground-ground as well as multiple rocket launchers TOS-1 Buratino, there are Russian and North Korean experts to ensure their maintenance.
Egyptian cargo ship containing weapons and ammunition docked in Boma November 20, 2015
A military source Naval Force informs us that a cargo ship came to Alexandria in Egypt with 10 million loading rifles cartridges Kalashnikov AKM (AK-47) of 7.62 mm and 2,000,000 heavy machine gun 12.7 mm cartridges DSHK [33]. The shipment also contained 12,500 AKM assault rifles, machine guns and 1,500 guns PKM Egyptian version of the Russian PKM [34] 7.62 mm and heavy machine guns DSHK and RPG-7 rocket launchers and RPG-16 (Russian anti-tank rocket launchers Portable) Egyptian version. According to other sources, these materials are a gift of the Egyptian president, al-Sissi Marshal “his brother Kabila”. The ship was chartered by the Egyptian government and was conveyed Tuesday, November 24, 2015 to the site of the GR Kibomango, tells us our source. As we can see, these materials are not intended for the FARDC logistics body but to the praetorian guard of the head of state.
Kabila will respect the Constitution, but in the tanzanian way !
This is what comes from a source of the civil house of the president : “the Boss will not stand whatever the circumstances, respect the Constitution and nothing but the constitution”. But he said that “the president is and will remain in office until the inauguration of a new president. Meanwhile the army will be ready to crush any insurgency or insurgency that will madness of causing a revolt or popular insurrection to destabilize the institutions and the country. Such a movement will be severely repressed destabilizing Congo. There will be alternating but as in Tanzania.”
This calls for a double interpretation on our part. First, that Kabila will respect the Constitution and remain in office until the inauguration of a new President of the Republic refers to Article 70 § 2 of the Constitution which says “At the end of its mandate, “the President of the Republic shall hold office until the effective installation of the newly elected President”. In our opinion, this argument is part of the trap idiots who could hide behind the call for dialogue with the aim of latent Kabila, as argued above, to push his interlocutors to the establishment of a transitional government. But the trap behind this strategy is that any such transition must respect the Constitution, so keep Kabila to lead the country until the effective installation of his successor. It is at the heart of the application of Enigma !
Then, the second interpretation one can make this declaration is an alternative commonly identified under the formula Putin-Medvedev. That is to say that Kabila will do if he leaves the power to ensure that his successor is his political party PPRD and the presidential majority. A person he will have to control completely. In fact, Tanzania is John Pombe Joseph Magufuli, the dauphin of outgoing President Jakaya Kikwete, who won the presidential election on October 25, 2015 with 58% of the vote against the opponent Edward Lowassa who wanted to proclaim himself winner before accepting the results. John Magufuli is a member of the party Chama Cha Mapinduzi(CCM), in power since the country’s independence in 1964.
Kabila can also rely on the Zimbabwean president to remain in power
This scenario, already mentioned by DESC in August 2014 under the title : “What if Joseph Kabila pactisait with Mugabe to resist Obama ? ” [35], remains plausible. In this article, we advanced that Kabila could build on the experience of “political godfather”, to resist Western Kings makers who want his departure in 2016. The recent trip Kabila in Harare, Zimbabwe’s capital, is likely to be placed in this context. And the daily The Independent Zimbabwe has been very explicit about this under the title : “Kabila seeks help Mugabe to retain power.” And the newspaper to move forward : “TOP Officials say government Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) President Joseph Kabila wants Zimbabwe to assist _him_ circumvent the constitutional requirement That he steps down after-serving two terms as president, amid growing unrest Caused By His bid to stay in power “ [36].
For a presidential source contacted by DESC : “It was just a 24-hour visit to the old Bob (Mugabe) to collect his advice and counsel with respect to future national dialogue. The idea was to do with the old Bob as he had managed to convince the opponent Tsvangirai to accept to enter into a government of national unity in order to “swallow” him afterwards. Furthermore Kabila posits as future president of the African Union whose handover summit is to be held in Harare in January 2016. The “Boss” wants to ensure the support of the heads of State of SADC member countries [37] and the ECCAS [38] and EAC [39].
Conclusion
Beyond the virtues and merits of the use of dialogue in the political context, those who have understood the strategy of fighting and talking, can identify what Kabila research through its dialogue. This is not so much dialogue that will ease the situation and make the serenity but it is the concrete political actions taken and to ask Kabila, in accordance with its constitutional powers, that will ease the political tension.
Finally, what should we give credit to a man who tends the carrot of dialogue with his left hand while his right hand preparing to hit the population has already repressed in blood in January 2015, forming 5000 New youth for the GR, nicknamed the “Bees and Ants” by the Egyptian and Israeli experts and recycling 3000 to other military GR?
If Joseph Kabila really intended to leave power peacefully and to ensure the peaceful elections in the DRC, it would not have recruited these “killers” or set the current politico-administrative disorder precipitated by cutting provinces, political patronage appointment of special commissioners as well as blocking of INEC …?
By delivering all the information we ask anyone to double check and well deny if they are actually false, our goal is to attract the attention of those who go to dialogue with Kabila on his dual bipolar psychological personality. Better yet, in their constitutional prerogatives of control Government action and public services whose army [40] in charge of defense policy, parliamentarians (opposition) can go and verify military sites populated by DESC. Even under the control arms purchases by the DRC under the 1807/2008 Resolution of the UN Security Council December 31, 2008, MONUSCO can also do the same because some weapons stored at the places mentioned have escaped the ad hoc verification procedure [41]. Moreover, politicians who are tempted to go into a sort of national unity government with Kabila must realize that those who have done previously with him, were all crushed thereafter : Jean-Pierre Bemba, Nzanga Mobutu, Gizenga’s PALU and, Olenghankoy, Mbusa Nyamwisi, etc.
We leave everyone free inquiry to make his own conclusion about the real intentions of Kabila in his offer of dialogue. However, we look forward to seeing you in 2016 when there will likely be weeping and gnashing of teeth as in 2011. At that time, it will still we go we “sleep like babies” until a new imperium while Kabila, like Mugabe, will settle comfortably in power for life !
Today, those in power driven, embastillés and despised by Kabila would they set to become its partners in dialogue ?
Finally, may I paraphrase the analyst Boniface Musavuli who worried face the bleak future that awaits the Congolese in the light of the end of the mandate of Joseph Kabila, wrote: “I read the procession around 2016 as walking to a bottleneck. With or without Kabila, it is a passage that even successful in terms of elections (which is highly unlikely), opens the door on the Congo into the unknown, the revival of armed conflict is, in my opinion, the most likely prospect. [42]
Jean-Jacques Wondo Omanyundu
(Original text is in French)
References
[1] http://afridesk.org/vers-un-nouveau-dialogue-en-rdc-apres-le-fiasco-des-concertations-lenvoye-special-said-djinnit-le-demineur-des-grands-lacs-jj-wondo/.
[3] http://afridesk.org/dialogue-de-dupes-kabila-opposition-rien-que-du-fighting-and-talking-jj-wondo/#sthash.pwgaPcIC.dpuf.
[4] http://afridesk.org/dialogue-de-dupes-kabila-opposition-rien-que-du-fighting-and-talking-jj-wondo/#sthash.pwgaPcIC.dpuf.
[5]Ibid.
[6] http://afridesk.org/inedit-comment-les-ntic-la-diaspora-et-la-population-congolaises-ont-mis-le-regime-kabila-a-genoux-jj-wondo/.
[7] See more at: http://afridesk.org/synthese-de-lhebdo-commente-du-18-au-24-aout-2014-desc/#sthash.H8X0vIT3.dpuf.
[8] See more at: http://afridesk.org/lhebdo-selectionne-et-commente-par-desc-semaine-du-25-au-31-aout-2014/#sthash.aax543Lg.dpuf.
[9] http://afridesk.org/au-congo-kinshasa-desuetude-rime-avec-deni-de-justice-jean-bosco-kongolo/.
[10] According to our sources in the presidential entourage, ENIGMA is a plan that was elaborated by a small circle of political advisers and military close to Kabila. Jaynet Kabila is the person who was at the initiative of the census project.
[11] See more at: http://afridesk.org/dialogue-de-dupes-kabila-opposition-rien-que-du-fighting-and-talking-jj-wondo/#sthash.tsn0DBd6.dpuf.
[12] Disproportionate reaction of GR and police against attackers – See more at: http://afridesk.org/rdc-lintervention-de-la-gr-est-elle-comparable-au-plan-vigipirate-en-france-jj-wondo-j-ziambi-k/#sthash.1qC6eum3.dpuf.
[13] http://afridesk.org/rdc-lintervention-de-la-gr-est-elle-comparable-au-plan-vigipirate-en-france-jj-wondo-j-ziambi-k/.
[14] The M23 has no other recourse than the hawkish strategy – See more at: http://afridesk.org/702/#sthash.WuyDFKgG.dpuf.
[15] See more at: http://afridesk.org/le-fighting-talking-de-kabila-et-bisengimana-en-serbie-pour-lachat-des-lacrymogenes/#sthash.zbQ53sIo.dpuf.
[16] A regiment generally includes about 1200 to 1500 men.
[17] http://afridesk.org/france-un-pays-en-etat-durgence-a-lepreuve-de-la-guerre-hybride-jean-jacques-wondo/.
[18] It was General Numbi Enoch who is the chief of staff of the air force. It is related to General John Numbi.
[19] The Russian GLONASS space navigation system, similar to the American system GPS global positioning, to determine the coordinates and speed of moving objects on land, at sea and in the air with an accuracy of one meter. Read more:http://fr.sputniknews.com/trend/GLONASS/#ixzz3sL7p5Zvi.
[20] HF radios ODAN is a manufacturer located in Australia. The brand offers various applications for use based, mobile and portable. Data transfer with the connection over the internet is possible through the solution + UU. Geolocation wave HF is also available.
[21] The series of HF transceivers Envoy of Codan offers voice and reliable and clear data. Equipped with a power of 125 W, Envoy is configurable for mobile stations and base stations.
The CODAN Envoy X1 resort offers 100 channels is available in base or mobile.
The CODAN Envoy X2 resort offers up to 1000 channels; Getting GPS connection support option via standard serial port. Available in standard or mobile. Technical specifications Codan Envoy X1.
[23] BTS: Beni Tal Security Company was established in 1981 with the aim of providing a complete, fast and professional response to complex issues in a wide spectrum of security-related fields. BTS works to create custom modular solutions to meet client requirements and the specific situations while strictly maintaining full confidentiality and client privacy and providing clients with complementary services in the various departments and branches. The company operates three divisions in Israel and an additional branch abroad, and serves clients from the private, public and municipal sectors.
[24] The IAI Heron (Machatz-1) is a medium-altitude long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) developed by the Malat (UAV) division of Israel Aerospace Industries. It is capable of Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) operations of up to 52 hours’ duration at up to 10.5 km (35,000 ft). It has demonstrated 52 hours of continuous flight, but the effective operational maximal flight duration is less, according to payload and flight profile. There is a new version, Heron TP, also known as IAI Eitan. On 11 September 2005, it was announced that the Israel Defense Forces purchased US$50 million worth of Heron systems.
[25] The IAI Searcher (also known by the Hebrew name מרומית Meyromit – “Marsh tern”, or officially in Israel as the חוגלה Hugla – “Alectoris”) is a reconnaissance UAV developed in Israel in the 1980s. In the following decade, it replaced the IMI Mastiff and IAI Scout UAVs then in service with the Israeli Army. Lire aussi : http://www.militaryfactory.com/aircraft/detail.asp?aircraft_id=1064.
[26] The bird eye is a small UAV (mini UAV) reconnaissance 8.5 kg, more economically accessible. http://siliconwadi.fr/5739/les-drones-les-nouveaux-as-de-laviation-israelienne.
[27] http://afridesk.org/a-linstar-de-la-nsa-kabila-deploie-ses-oreilles-electroniques-en-rdc-par-le-dispositif-random-desc/.
[28] Kipopo is about 30km N.M. Kipopo Lubumbashi. Géosatellites data: Latitude: -11.55 – Longitude: 27.35.
[29] http://afridesk.org/flash-desc-du-materiel-militaire-lourd-pour-la-gr-en-debarquement-a-moanda/.
[30] http://afridesk.org/une-nouvelle-rebellion-des-elements-de-la-gr-en-gestation-au-katanga-jean-jacques-wondo/.
[31] PVP = Petit véhicule protégé.
[32] Mbankana The village is located in the commune of Maluku district Tshangu city province of Kinshasa. The indigenous population belongs to the Teke tribe. Next geographic location, Mbankana is located at 145 Km from downtown Kinshasa on the Plateau de Batéké, straddling the national road No. 1 section Kinshasa – Kikwit. The city covers an area of roughly 15,000 m2. Topographic data are: average Height: 587 m varies between 632 m north and south; latitude: 4 ° 26 ‘48.9 “South; longitude: 16 ° 11’30,8 “East and 16 ° 20 ‘.
It is bounded
– To the north by Yoso district Kinzono and agro-forestry project MAMPU ;
– To the south by the district Mwe and a vast expanse of savannah, up to and Kasangulu Madimba territory in the province of Bas-Congo ;
– To the east by the river and Lufini Mongata area makes the border of the town of Maluku and Bandundu province ;
– On the west by the neighborhood Dumi, the Mai-Ndombe river and the reserve and hunting estate of Bombo-Lumene (Biuma, 2004).
[33] The 12.7 x 108 mm cartridge is a heavy machine gun and anti-materiel rifle used by the Soviet Union, the Warsaw Pact, modern Russia, and other countries. It is the Soviet equivalent of the .50 BMG cartridge NATO (12.7 × 99 mm NATO). The differences between the two are the shape of the ball and the type of powder used. In addition, the cartridge 12.7 x 108 mm has a socket 9 mm longer and is somewhat more potent. US and Russian munitions .50 caliber 12.7mm are not interchangeable.
The 12.7 x 108 mm can be used to engage a variety of targets on the battlefield. It can not destroy armored vehicles, lightly armored vehicles penetrate and damage from external accessories equipment such as armored réservoirs1. A ball of 12.7 mm armor-piercing can penetrate armor of 25 mm, while a 12.7 mm standard ricochera thereon, causing no damage. The DShK 1938 (“Large-caliber Degtiarev Chpaguine”) is a Soviet anti-aircraft heavy machine gun firing 12.7 × 108mm cartridges, also used as a heavy machine gun for infantry. It is mainly used during World War II.
[34] This is Degtyarev PKM light machine gun derived from the Soviet AK 47 weapon simple design, it is nevertheless robust, accurate and of good quality.
[35] http://afridesk.org/et-si-joseph-kabila-pactisait-avec-mugabe-pour-resister-a-obama-j-kandolojj-wondo/#sthash.aXkCLuM2.dpuf.
[36] http://www.theindependent.co.zw/2015/11/20/kabila-seeks-mugabe-help-to-retain-power/.
[37] Southern African Development Community (La Communauté de développement d’Afrique australe).
[38] Communauté économique des Etats de l’Afrique Centrale.
[39] Eastern African Community (Communauté d’Afrique de l’Est).
[40] Article 100 of the Constitution, “Legislative power is exercised by a Parliament composed of two chambers : the National Assembly and the Senate.
Notwithstanding other provisions of this Constitution, Parliament passes laws. It controls the government, public enterprises and institutions and public services … “. Read also:
[41] The arms embargo in the DRC was imposed in 2003 by CS by Resolution 1493/2003. It concerns all armed groups and Congolese or foreign militias operating in the provinces of North Kivu, South Kivu and Ituri, as well as groups that were not part of the Global and All Inclusive Agreement on the Transition in DRC.
By its Resolution 1596/2005 CS then extended the arms embargo to any recipient in the DRC, with the exception of the military and the National Police. Indeed, Resolution 1596 include penalties for people who violate the arms embargo by imposing measures of travel ban and a freeze on their financial assets. In addition, the Resolution 1596 extended the arms embargo to the entire DRC, while exempting FARDC and PNC brewing in progress and integration, however, subject to certain restrictions.
In reality, the restrictions that are currently subject FARDC and PNC concern specific clauses that allow the DRC to acquire a series of weapons and ammunition, and basic military equipment (including aircraft, helicopters, tanks, armored vehicles and communications equipment : military communications …) provided this is done in the global and multilateral framework defined in the program of the RSS FARDC and is adequate to real military needs FARDC and PNC and compatible objectives within the framework of SSR and the establishment of a restructured army, integrated and well equipped.
Furthermore, in December 2005, the SC has strengthened its sanctions policy against violators of the embargo by a vote on a new resolution 1649 which extends to “political and military leaders of foreign armed groups operating in the DRC and as “political and military leaders of Congolese militias receiving support from outside” of the DRC. So the CS was presqu’explicitement militias were supported by Rwanda and Uganda.
In July 2006 by its Resolution 1698/2006, the UN SC has extended for one year the embargo, then by the Resolutions 1771/2007 and 1799/2008 until 31 March 2008.
Another Resolution 1807/2008 renewed the arms embargo until 31 December 2008, limited its application only to non-governmental forces (ie only to armed groups and militias playing in DRC) and individuals operating in the territory of DR CONGO . The peculiarity of Resolution 1807/2008 was to remove the requirement that the Congolese GOVERNMENT following which any authorized shipment of arms was to be exclusively on sites designated by the government in consultation with MONUSCO in DRC. Although Resolution, pursuant to Article 5 stated that all States shall notify the Committee of Council sanctions on DR CONGO, any shipment of arms and related materials and any supply of RDCONGO, tips or training relevant to the conduct of military operations in the country. For more details read : http://www.ingeta.com/mensonges-autour-lembargo-sur-les-armes-kabila-contredit-par-les-faits/.
[42] See more at: http://afridesk.org/fr/rd-congo-2016-cest-la-guerre-qui-nous-attend-boniface-musavuli/#sthash.IZ9iGaOu.dpuf.
One Comment “DRC: Is Kabila credible in his proposal of national dialogue ? – Jean-Jacques Wondo Omanyundu”
Roger Massamba
says:BONJOUR MR. JJ WONDO , JE SUIS TELLEMENT ESTUFAIT DE VOIR COMMENT CE MR. JOSEPH KABILA S’ENTENTE D’UNE MANIERE TRES DRAGONIERE , QUE CE QU’IL FAUT FAIRE POUR NETRALISER OU CONTOURNER TOUS CES ARMANDANTS DES ARMEES ET DES MUNITIONS ET EN EQUIPEMENT TRES MODERISER POUR CHASSER CES BESTIOLES ET BANDITS DU CLANS KABILIES ? JE SUIS TRES TRES CHOQUER ET LA PEUR M’HABITES D’ APRÈS LA DECLARATION DES EVEQUES CATHOLIQUE DE LA CENCO POUR FINIR LA SEULE SOLUTION BAWA BAFWA BASHALA BASHALA , KABILA JOSEPH MUST GO THEREFORE THE GAME IS OVER.