DRC: From nepotic locking of the CENI for the benefit of Tshisekedi to chaos? – JJ Wondo

Author : Jean-Jacques Wondo Omanyundu

Does Felix Tshisekedi clone Joseph Kabila’s electoral strategy?

In the DRC, the days pass and are alike. President Tshisekedi is determined to re-enlist in 2023 after having acquired a taste for power for power. The opposite would have surprised several observers and especially disappointed his many supporters and other courtiers who would be betrayed in full consumption of their share of the cake and those waiting for their turn to go to the table.

In an article analyzing the electoral processes before 2018, published in 2019 by the Congolese electoral expert Alain-Joseph Lomandja, the latter paraphrased the following words of the late His Eminence Laurent Cardinal Monsengwo concerning the 2011 elections: “the results of the said elections were not ” in accordance with truth and justice “. Thus, in the general post-election momentum of the “never again!” genre, politicians and civil society actors had promised each other major electoral reforms. Everyone wanted credible and indisputable elections. It was however without counting with the calculations politicians of undemocratic conservation of the capacity which led to the elections of December 30, 2018, two years after the constitutional end of the last mandate of Mr. Kabila. [1]

And the author insists on the importance of ethical questioning on electoral reforms by asking the following question: What is the use of procedural reforms devoid of any political ethics and sense of responsibility and republican fairness? According to him, electoral reform only makes sense if it allows the most credible and transparent expression of the will of the people. [2]

With a balance sheet with socio-economic indicators in the red two years from the end of the presidential mandate and the strong comeback of anti-values endorsed by endless series of cases of corruption and embezzlement of public funds by his direct entourage, of which he would be also one of the indirect beneficiaries, it is at the level of the CENI that Félix Tshisekedi, cloning the electoral governance of Kabila, plans his re-election in the next presidential election scheduled for 2023. Presumably, the man does not seem to have taken advantage of the return negative experience of his rowdy election in 2019. Thus, he is counting on the CENI to set up a scheme aimed at locking down the Congolese electoral center by people who are very close to him politically, if not ethnically.

And as Mr. Lomandja points out, “ in such an amoral and/or anomic environment, it is illusory to envisage effective, restrictive and impersonal electoral reforms. Indeed, the political actors exploit the institutions and their artificial majorities and these, in their turn, transform the essential electoral reforms into one of the political strategies of preservation in power. Undemocratic retention of power, when not outright anti-democratic. It is thus, as we can see, an environment of formalized and established political corruption in a mode of governance and acceptance of power ”.[3]

Regarding the 2023 elections, the factual clues of this strategy of electoral fraud are legion and promise chaotic elections likely to further destabilize the Congo, already bloodless in all areas.

Denis Kadima, President of the CENI

Nepotistic appointments (tribal and political) for the preservation of power

It is in this perspective that Denis Kadima, fruit of the corruption of a fringe of religious denominations, was imposed at the head of the CENI. A diktat choice that took place following an illegal process that notably angered CENCO, the Ensemble pour la République party and several civil society organizations. Indeed, according to Albert Moleka, former Chief of Staff of Etienne Tshisekedi: “ Kadima is close to the presidential clan and very close to the UDPS ».^[4]

Thus, at the level of Justice, the senior judges of the Constitutional Court and the Court of Appeal, responsible for dealing with electoral disputes, are in the great majority from Kasaï, the electoral stronghold of President Tshisekedi. The same is true of the Minister of Justice, Rose Mutombo Kiese who is Luba from Kasaï-Oriental like President Tshisekedi. As for the power to organize and secure the elections, it is placed in the hands of the Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of the Interior, Security, Decentralization and Customary Affairs, Daniel Aselo Okito wa Koyi. Originally from Sankuru in Greater Kasai, Mr. Aselo is also a member of Tshisekedi’s UDPS party. As far as the financial aspects of the electoral process are concerned, they are managed by two other Luba from Kasai, the Minister of Finance Nicolas Kazadi as well as the Governor of the Central Bank, Malangu Kabedi Mbuyi .

As if that were not enough, the desire to lock down the next electoral cycle will be accentuated by the choices of the other two Luba from Kasai. These include the rapporteur Patricia Nseya, who, together with Denis Kadima, will have to sign the minutes of the results of the next elections and ensure their publication. Indeed, Ms. Nseya was a national deputy, elected on the UDPS list in the constituency of Likasi in the province of Haut-Katanga.

It is always with this non-misleading (dishonest) intention of ensuring the effective control of the CENI that the deputy Ditu Monizu , expelled from the ECIDE after joining Union sacrée, the political coalition in power, miraculously found himself among the members of the CENI on behalf of the opposition.

To seal this nepotic tendency within the CENI, another Luba, Marie-Josée Kapinga Bondoa, was appointed deputy national executive secretary of the CENI [5], as if the skills were only to be found among the Luba of Kasai. It will have as its leader, as National Executive Secretary of the CENI, Mr. Thotho Mabiku Totokani. The latter is an active and ultra member of the UDPS having belonged to the cabinet of Félix Tshisekedi when he assumed the functions of president of the UDPS in 2018.

Thotho Mabiku, National Executive Secretary of the CENI

The choice of Thotho Mabiku has been the subject of controversy. Some observers said that he was particularly close to Martin Fayulu who signed a document appointing him as an expert for the Dynamique de l’opposition, an electoral platform led by Fayulu in 2018. AFRIDESK contacted Serge Welo, a senior member of the ECIDE to be enlightened. Here is what he replied to us:

“Fayulu’s signature is affixed to this document because he was the one who led the UDPS, MLC, Dynamique de l’opposition (DO) group with regard to the revision of the Electoral Register. But the Tshisekedi fanatics wanted to manipulate and distract public opinion. Indeed, Thotho Mabiku was a member of the UDPS recommended to the Dynamique de l’opposition by Asbl APRODEC. Before the creation of Lamuka in Geneva in November 2018, the DO had come together with the other opposition parties, including the UDPS, to jointly monitor the electoral process. The ASBL APRODEC, then very close to the UDPS, presented him to us as a great expert and we followed his recommendations. Finally, we appointed 5 delegates: a member for the UDPS (Thotho Mabiku), a member for the MLC, a member for the UNC. Fayulu was at the head of 5 opposition groups on the question of the audit of the electoral register. This is what explains the subject of the letter below. Thotho Mabiku is a member of the UDPS. He had publicly supported Felix Tshisekedi’s false results in the 2018 elections according to RFI. Martin Fayulu also told me that he doesn’t even know Thotho Mabiku in person. It was indeed Benjamin Stanis Kalombo of APRODEC who proposed to present this name on behalf of Tshisekedi’s UDPS”.

With this tribal and political network of institutions involved in the next electoral process, President Tshisekedi’s intentions are coming to light. Even if some defenders of Tshisekedi advance the expertise of certain people retained, the doubt remains with the public opinion. This is noted in particular by Jean-Claude Katende of ASADHO on the appointment of Thotho Mabiku to the post of National Executive Secretary of the CENI by Denis Kadima: “The appointment of an active member of the UDPS to the post of secretary national executive of the Ceni reinforces the discredit that weighs on this institution. There are other Congolese who could well occupy this position without too many cases”.

Upcoming elections at high risk and under tension

The recent appointments in force of those close to Félix Tshisekedi at the head of the CENI have already aroused an outcry in several political staffs and within civil society. If the Ensemble party of Katumbi remains apparently voiceless, it comes back to us from several sources that its faith in a transparent and credible electoral process is nil.

Moreover, the appointment of Mabiku is also at the root of the frustrations within the Union sacrée. According to a source that requested anonymity within the Mouvement de liberation du Congo (MLC), several leaders of Jean Pierre Bemba’s party are criticizing the fact that Mabiku, a member of the UDPS, takes this post whereas during the negotiations between political parties within the Union sacrée it was granted to the political formation of the MLC. [6]

The Roman Catholic and Protestant churches (ECC) have opted for a posture of mistrust and active non-cooperation with the CENI. [7] As for Lamuka by Martin Fayulu and Adolphe Muzito, he openly accuses Félix Tshisekedi of placing UDPS members in the General Secretariat of the CENI and calls on the international community to prevent the looming electoral chaos. Lamuka calls on the traditional partners of the DRC to look into the danger of the electoral process which should lead to the organization of general elections in December 2023. [8] On the side of civil society, tempers are also heating up.The LUCHA and several activists engaged in the promotion of democracy are already working to mobilize the population not to have their elections stolen as in 2006, 2011 and 2018. The armed men on their side, tired of the broken promises of the political leaders, are at the end of their patience according to echoes which return from the barracks. Their wives had also expressed their indignation during President Tshisekedi’s visit to Lodja. [9]

Conclusion: chaos foretold?

The non-consensual management of the electoral process and the institutions responsible for organizing the elections in 2023 creates frustrations which, from the point of view of Tshisekedi’s political partners, the opposition and civil society, opens the door to fraud, increases mistrust in the electoral process. Poor management of the electoral process presents enormous risks of impacting the stability of the DRC. All the ingredients for a hectic pre-election period that could lead to destabilization in the DRC seem to be in place.

According to several information at our disposal, President Tshisekedi, with the support of Rwanda and Uganda, is preparing an electoral forcing. One of the first strategies will be to disqualify his most redoubted opponents by carving out a tailor-made electoral law or by giving injunctions to the courts to put them out of the electoral race, like what the Kabila regime did in 2018.

This condescending and arrogant strategy of exclusion and governance by defiance risks pushing opponents of Tshisekedi and other actors disappointed in Tshisekedi’s tribal and neo-patrimonialist governance to their last entrenchment. Indeed, no one wants to suffer the unfortunate experience of 2018. In this worst-case scenario, some will not hesitate to resort to other counter-attack maneuvers that risk putting the DRC on fire and blood.