DRC : a pre-explosive political and security

situation in the ex-Katanga ?

By Jean-Jacques Wondo Omanyundu

The tense political evolution of these last months in Democratic Republic of Congo, basing on our strategic analyses of risk assessment, shows that Kinshasa, the Katanga as well as the North and the South Kivu risk falling in political and security violence, in the year 2016, with immeasurable consequences. The present article analyzes the risk that the ex-province of the Katanga, formerly Joseph Kabila’s political fief, can tip over to violence because of the extension of the opposition front against the Congolese Head of State.

Kinshasa and The ex-province of the Katanga in the orbit of the security services of Kabila

The analysis of information gathered by DESC specifically indicate that President Joseph Kabila fears a threat to his power in the capital Kinshasa, the former province of Katanga and in the two Kivu provinces where populations continue to express their growing discontent against the regime.

In Kinshasa, Kabila is still haunted by the protest movements of the population in January, 2015. The regime is aware that an overflowing could lead to a popular revolt similar to the demonstrations which took place in Burkina Faso in October, 2014 and which led to the fall of the former president Blaise Compaoré. Moreover at that time, Kabila had sent the envoys – mister Atundu Liongo, the current spokesman of the MP (Majorité présidentielle) – to follow closely the events (the project of modification of the constitution) in order to be inspired by it. On the other hand, the military circle of Kabila had been delighted at the short-lived coup d’état of general Gilbert Diendéré on September 16th, 2015. But after its failure, the Congolese presidential military circle of acquaintances showed itself very worried and since it lives in a psychosis of a popular revolt being able to chase Kabila away of the power. The proof of this panic which took up residence to the presidential camp is that Kabila is from now on absent in the big world meetings where the DRC is nevertheless called, logically and strategically, to shine on the diplomatic plan [1].

Hence the option of going to the dialogue with the UDPS of the historic opponent, Etienne Tshisekedi, in the hope of defusing the risk of a popular revolt in Kinshasa, where the UDPS is quite popular. But DESC fears that this measure is not sufficient because the UDPS is not only facing a domestic crisis that divides the party but it also losing its influence in the population since, cut from its grassroots [2]. Since the beginning of this year 2015, there is some dispute Etienne Tshisekedi leadership by its grassroots which, twice, during the popular demonstrations in January 2015, did not follow his order [3]. Despite appearances, the basis of the UDPS is increasingly cheated by the party leadership, cut off from the reality on the ground. [4] This is a clear sign of the loss of relative influence of the party on the ground.

In Katanga, there is at the same time popular overflowing and armed threat that dreads the security circle of acquaintances of Kabila. It is in the Katanga where we find at present the most radical wing of the opposition against Kabila led by three notorious Katanga leaders members of the G7 (Mwando Nsimba, Dany Banza and Gabriel Kyungu). These personalities are rather influential in the province, particularly Gabriel Kyungu who has a militia of young people besides his party, UNAFEC, capable of violent actions.

Another serious element which shows that Kabila would not feel at ease any more in the Katanga where Katumbi feels at home or almost, is the impressive security forces deployed in Lubumbashi. Several local sources stated a deployment of a very impressive military operation of the Republican guard (les GR) around the military camp of Kimbembe.

Already in January, 2015 when Joseph Kabila went to speak to the notables of the Katanga on the question of the division of provinces, there was a massive deployment of the soldiers of the GR in Lubumbashi. According to a source of the military house of the Congolese Head of State : ” The deployment of the servicemen of the 13th brigade infantry of the GR which is parked in the Camp Kimbembe with a part of the 11th brigade GR infantry proceeds of a red alert decided by the presidential military pre-square. The presence of Kabila in Lubumbashi urged them to implement a plan of security of very high level to secure and buckle completely the city of Lubumbashi and its neighborhood during the stay of the president in the Katanga. This deployment is for dissuasive use. There was strong insistent rumors before the coming of Kabila in the Katanga of a coordinated attack of the city of Lubumbashi which should be led by militiamen Bakata-Katanga reunited to some young persons at a loose end of the UNAFEC, the party of Kyungu, who, according to the information of the services T2 (piece of information of the GR), usually serve as indicators, as well as ex-gendarmes Katanga infiltrated in the Katanga from Zambia and Angola[5].

“The Kimbembe Camp is located not far from the presidential farm Manika, 30 km west of Lubumbashi. This is entirely normal, given the heavy security threat evaluated so that the GR Kimbembe Camp will become the defense post Advanced to contain possible attacks. The situation was very tense and GR was under notice zero “.

In addition to these, we must also add the former governor Moïse Katumbi remains very popular in the former Katanga, whose football club, TP Mazembe, has a core of young fans able to use violent means against opponents. These young people have already shown this during the 2011 election period, when the barrister Jean-Claude Muyambo had criticized the management of the province by Katumbi. Dissatisfied with these words, supporters of Moïse Katumbi attacked, with the help of the police, the ranch of Jean-Claude Muyambo, and his channel Radio Television channel Libre JUA[6].

So, given the current political tension continues to rise, particularly in Katanga, it is not excluded that the political crisis degenerates into mass demonstrations against Kabila and explosion of armed violence. Knowing that Bakata Katanga, unhappy for not to have been rewarded by Kabila after the 2011 elections and the lack of support to the split of Katanga into 4 provinces, combine with the youth of UNAFEC/Kyungu and the Mazembe supporters capacity to carry out violent actions, important protest movements of Kabila’s power are to be feared in the coming months in Katanga. The recent ban of TP Mazembe supporters tally in Lubumbashi by the police is a harbinger [7].

That is what largely explains the excessive militarization of Lubumbashi, the second strategic city after Kinshasa and the economic heart of the DRC whose political control by Kabila’s opponents would mean a total loss of his political basis and its regional electoral stronghold. A situation that could precipitate the fall of Kabila, increasingly isolated since disavowed already in its former electoral strongholds of East, particularly in the Kivu. It would be left to him the Maniema, but it is a low-stakes province (about 2 million inhabitants) and has very little geopolitical and strategic influence in Congo.

Northern Katanga increasingly threatened by a resurgence of violence

Based on a recent research of the Belgian think tank GRIP (www.grip.be), we consider that it’s in North Katanga where may have more security threat as the end of term of Kabila approaches. The author of this research, Georges Berhezan, identified three main armed militias that spread terror in the former province of Katanga. [8]

1) Mai-Mai Gédéon Kyungu claiming.

2) Mai Mai of the secessionist CORAK, who had conducted several raids on Lubumbashi, including one that resulted in the escape of Gédéon Kyungu. The CORAK, whose president Matuka Munana Tshitshi Simon, issued a statement calling for the recognition of the “Federal Republic and multiracial of Katanga”.

An alliance was formed between the two movements. The CORAK is said in the UN experts report to have armed the Gédéon Mayi-Mayi militia, perhaps in recognition of his “conversion” to the separatist ideology. [9]

3) The Congress of the Katangan people (KPC), which count among its ranks many Tigers and would be led by Kazadi Mutombo Imena Tanda. To recap, the KPC had filed in 1992 with the African Commission on Human Rights and Peoples’ Rights (ACHPR, mechanism emanating from the Organization of African Union), a request that it be recognized as “a liberation movement to help Katanga to gain independence; recognize the independence of Katanga; help secure the evacuation of Zaire from Katanga territory “.

To these groups, add the Rwandan Hutu rebels, the FDLR, who fled the fighting in Kivu and settled in Bendera the area north of Kalemie. But there is also, according to Jeune Afrique of December 7, 2015, a thousand ex-combatants M23, refugees in Uganda who are being repatriated in Kamina. This rapariation will be sure probably not safe to have collateral effects in the former province of increasingly militarized , in case of deterioration of the political and security situation in the province of the congolese copper.

According Berghezan Georges, North Katanga is more threatened than southern Katanga. Ther is a fault line between the north and south of Katanga. The majority of the mineral resources are concentrated in the southern part of the province, which enjoys a much higher standard of living than the northern part, which is also the most affected by the proliferation of armed groups. Cutting Katanga may accentuate the contrast between the two “provincettes” South : Haut-Katanga and Lualaba (the latter absorbs the Kolwezi District) appears better endowed with mineral resources than the Upper Lomani and especially the Tanganyika. This division glad part of the population of the former Katanga, including the new rich province of Lualaba, to believe in the message of his new Commissioner, Richard Muyej during his first contact with his constituents in Kolwezi [ 10]. The population sees it as a source of employment in the administration. However, it created political tensions, some seeing the “death of Katanga identity” [11] or fearing an even darker future for the two new Northern provinces. Katanga of the most influential people also oppose openly, as its governor, the “southern” Moïse Katumbi, or “Northern” Gabriel Kyungu wa Kumwanza, former governor, current president of the Parliamentary Assembly and Provincial Champion of “federalism” and Katangan self-government[12].

After the defection of a company of GR, General Kampete Ilunga, commander of the GR, led a one month mission in Katanga to restructure the troops

After the defection of the 250 elements of the Republican Guard (GR) of the 11th Infantry Brigade of Special Kimbembe camp, General Kampete Ilunga, commander of the GR Guard conducted a mission in early October 2015, more than a month in Katanga to restructure GR troops of the former province. He returned in Kinshasa October 24, 2015 for a short stay of two days to get his first mission report to President Kabila.

After his meeting with the Head of State, Ilunga Kampete returned in October 26, 2015 in Lubumbashi with new guidelines issued by President Kabila in connection with the security situation in the former province of Katanga. According to one of our other sources in Lubumbashi, “the general Ilunga and his delegation had landed at the airport in the afternoon of 26 October with government jet Falcon 100 with registration “Democratic Republic of Congo”. General Kampete was accompanied by Director of transmission of the GR, Colonel Hassan Tshibasu and the commander of the armored regiment GR, Colonel Bikombe. They were housed in the presidential field of Lubumbashi (called Ruwe Residence) and their mission was to last until the security situation is under control and taken over completely throughout the territory of the former Katanga. Ilunga Kampete was to be temporarily stationed in Katanga with part of the GR staff. “

According to the elements of the report submitted to Kabila and sent to DESC by a favorable wind : “The morale of the Republican Guard units stationed in the former Katanga is very low. In addition to the worrying situation of the desertion of the company of Lieutenant Kinda aka kilo, many GR’s soldiers deserted to go to South Africa and Namibia where they work as security guards in different mining companies and earn good wages, about $ 1,000, sum they could ever imagine winning in the GR. So many of their peers are also attracted and tempted by this adventure. Others who remained in Katanga, only very rarely go to their posts, except the period of the military pays around the 21st of each month. Most of them go to work all day in various mining careers of former Katanga to round their end of the month. “

“Moreover, the current commander of the troops of the 11th Brigade, Colonel Stephen Monga, displayed a deficit of commandment. He is accused of being very distant from his troops who feel abandoned. Instead of residing in Kimbembe Camp with his soldiers, he lives in his luxurious villa in the Golf neighborhood in Lubumbashi. In addition, he has no leader of men command skills. He is rather an administrative officer (bureaucrat) as a source of the command of the 11th Brigade said, “while GR’s troops need an operational officer.” Even worse, the troop’s household funds are largely hijacked by the hierarchy of the brigade. “Soldiers do not have enough to eat as was the situation when General Akili Mundos was the commander of the Camp”, with the corollary that the soldiers’ morale is at its lowest. They eat only once per day. The premiums of GR soldiers are $ 100 (or 110 000 Congolese Francs) per month in addition to their salaries, paid with the 800 FC rate for 1 USD while the market rate is 920 FC / 1 dollar. The investigation has determined that the hierarchy has diverted 30,000 FC ($ 33) per month per soldier. According to our source, “It is normal that morale is down as well as their loyalty to the President and to the country.”

This is one reason, specify our source, which justified the presence of General Ilunga Kampete in Katanga to address all these deficiencies. And “President Kabila has at its disposal all necessary means (tickets bags 100 USD and 20,000 CF) and a transport helicopter MI-8/17 to go and inspect all the units deployed in GR camps in the former Katanga “. Also Colonel “Alexis Mutombo” called “Mobile one” (Director of Signals of the Presidency of the Republic) presented the general Ilunga Kampete encrypted Motorola satellite phone tetra [13] of French brand to secure constant communication with the President. “

Still according to the report: “When General Ilunga Kampete and his delegation arrived in Kimbembe camp in Lubumbashi, they found troops divided on ethnic lines between Balubakat the Kalundas the Tchokwe the Bemba, the Lamba, the Tabua Moba (Fire Samba Kaputo ethnicity and Mwando Nsimba) and soldiers from other provinces of the DRC. The soldiers hold meetings according to their community affiliations. There was no cohesion nor “esprit de corps”. This is why the general Ilunga Kampete has already begun permutations of officers of the 11th Special Infantry Brigade GR to other units, but also the permutations of soldiers from Katanga to the east of the DRC ( Goma, Kisangani) and west of the DRC (Kinshasa, Mbanza-Ngungu). «These permutations were also confirmed by other sources in Kinshasa, where some of their colleagues were recently sent to Goma and Katanga in new units.

Indeed, this division between the ethnic groups of the GR in Katanga was following somehow the socio-ethnic logic of the recent defection of some executives of the Presidential Majority (MP). I mentioned in an earlier analysis that the chief deserters, Lieutenant Kinda, dubbed Kilo, was Bemba’s ethnicity.

I had also mentioned that the defection of Katumbi and G7 should have consequences in the army and security services. For now, the military observe and remain discreet, but there will come a point where they will make choices based on their ethnic or political proximity. DESC has several serious indications that the direct entourage of Kabila is unlikely to be spared, all things being equal.

In Katanga, is Kabila opposing the Northerners and Southerners ?

Although not yet confirmed with certainty, this assumption is not excluded. Indeed, we find that Kabila seems to approach increasingly Balundas, notably through brothers Philemon [14] and Jean-Claude Yav [15] against the Balubakat. At the same time, he opposes Balubakat of Upper Lomami to Balubakat of Tanganyika. A source said : there are in the army an undeclared war between the Balubakat Tanganyika : Manono, Kabalo, Nyunzu, Kalemie and those of Upper Lomami (Province of General John Numbi) Malemba Nkulu, Mitwaba, Kamina, Kabongo: an area where the act essentially Bakata Katanga[16].

Demining mission accomplished but with bitterness for the general Ilunga Kampete?

It seems that since General Ilunga Kampete visited Katanga morale GR soldiers improves. Some deserters returned to the ranks of their unit as there is a promise of President Kabila passed by the General Ilunga : “no deserter who will regain his unity will be disturbed or prosecuted by the military”. They can come back without fear according to our source.

“General Ilunga Kampete had also defused the bomb GR in Kinshasa, which threatened to destroy the Kabila regime. Ilunga Kampete is a tribune who can talk to the troops and knows how to listen and obey, but for how long ? “, questions our source.

In addition, there are about 3,000 young soldiers from the recruitment of 2012-2013 who were trained at the training center of Lokandu in Maniema, who arrived in Kibomango (near Kinshasa) to be recycled by the Egyptian instructors to serve in the GR. This quota whose soldiers come from all provinces of the DRC, as they have been recruited across the country is put at the disposal of the Republican Guard commander to restructure this body which, according to our source, should no longer be mono-ethnic (Katanga) and possibly enhance GR, especially in Katanga, where the former intelligence services evaluate a high risk of threat. They will particularly strengthen the staff of the 11th Infantry Brigade special GR Kimbembe camp in Lubumbashi.

But the fear that these promises to grant bonuses to Kimbembe military camp only raise moods of other military movements in the GR or not rewarded FARDC, is a threat to be taken seriously and may cause widespread riots across the country in the coming months.

According to the airport and the air force sources, the Commander of the GR regained Kinshasa Tuesday, November 24, 2015 in a special Boeing 727 commonly known in FARDC as ‘Zero Tolerance’, “after handing the order to GR based in Katanga. He has left his right arm, Colonel Steve Bikombe, commander of the armored regiment to assist Colonel Etienne Monga who demonstrates leadership deficit in the 11th Special Infantry Brigade Camp Kimbembe GR GR. Ilunga Kampete also left Major Arthur Nziam, T2 (intelligence officer) as assistant for the GR operations to help Colonel Monga on intelligence and security plans. While the general Ilunga Kampete had proposed raising Colonel Etienne Monga his position, the President Kabila who personally insisted that he maintains in function. A strategic view of divergence that would inevitably have consequences in the relations between officers of the GR, but also between the hierarchy of the GR and Kabila. A source informed us about a disappointment and bitterness felt by the commander of the GR. He would have the impression of not being listened to.
It should be noted that already in August 2015, General Ilunga with General Olenga, defused the discontent of a group of young officers of the GR who threatened to resign Kabila if General John Numbi was not rehabilitated in his functions. [17]

The former Katanga, the purpose of following the visit of Jacob Zuma in Kinshasa in October 2015

According to the press: “President Jacob Zuma met Joseph Kabila Saturday, October 16, 2015. It was particularly question of agreements on the project Inga dam. (…) The visit marks the ten-year global agreement signed between South Africa and the DRC. This treaty focuses on economic, political and military. Zuma and Kabila presidents assessed the progress made since 2004 and discussed future projects together. One of the most important is that the Inga project, says Maite Mashabane, South African Minister of Foreign Affairs.

South Africa has agreed to buy half the of the 4,800 megawatts that will produce Inga dam, which should soon be built on the Congo River and that will be one of the most powerful in the world. And it should provide electricity to several African countries. The cooperation between the two countries is also important in security domain. South African soldiers are actually deployed in eastern DRC as part of the intervention brigade MONUSCO. In addition, South Africa is involved in training the Congolese army. “

But according to a presidential source said: “Zuma is mostly come to inquire about the security situation in the DRC and particularly the former Katanga, linked to the desertion of GR soldiers and their flight in Zambia. Zambia is a member of SADC (Southern African Development Community). President Zuma chairs the SADC defense and security commission. That’s why he went to Kinshasa to discuss this worrying situation especially with Kabila. Katanga is vital for South Africa because the power line Inga-Shaba carries current to the RSA through Zambia and Zimbabwe, and 80% of mineral exports from the former Katanga are currently exported through the port of Durban and Port Elizabeth in the Eastern Cape province (Eastern Cape). In addition, there are nearly 5,000 South African citizens currently living in the former Katanga and work primarily in the mining and banking sectors. There are also South African companies that are present in Katanga. A deterioration of the security situation in Katanga could threaten directly the South African economic interests and South African nationals in the province. Hence the arrival of Zuma to know exactly what is happening and see how RSA can help the DRC to find a solution. “

“NB: SAA (South African Airways) lands at Lubumbashi (Luano) each day. With the disappearance of 4 MANPADS with their missiles, there is worrying the South African authorities. “
Two other items on the agenda of the visit of South African President Jacob Zuma in Kinshasa, was the President Kabila’as secret visit in Pyongyang, Korea North over the export of Congolese uranium to North Korea via Pakistan. These activities were intercepted by the US secret services. We will return in a future article.
“The proof that the meeting was highly secure, President Zuma was accompanied by the Director General of SASS (South African Secret Service), Batandwa Siswana [18] and all his staff was in Kinshasa to discuss with the Congolese intelligence services about the general security situation in Katanga. ” It seems that, according to our sources in South Africa, following the threat, Pretoria has decided to send an additional 400 troops reinforcing in support of the South African contingent of MONUSCO brigade intervention.

Conclusion

Despite these changes and the battery of measures taken to calm the troops, our sources are virtually unanimous that the situation remains more volatile in the Republican Guard and the former Katanga could pay the price. Moreover, the rest of the army is very demotivated because of being abandoned by its authorities. Soldiers conducting operations in Beni are not paid for months. Thus, the exacerbation of the political tension could be accompanied by the explosion of violence and widespread mutinies in units of the FARDC and GR. Beyond the fear of widespread popular insurrection, we talk more and more of a panic that inhabits the military and security entourage of Kabila fearing widespread mutinies in several barracks in the country. Our military contacts scattered across the country attest to us.

Jean-Jacques Wondo Omanyundu

(The original text is in French)

References

[1] Joseph Kabila has given up to attend the UN Conference on Climate Change (COP 21), held in Paris from 30 November to 11 December 2015.

[2] http://afridesk.org/fr/ma-lecture-2-rdc-2016-equations-et-les-hommes-en-vue-jean-jacques-wondo/.

[3] http://afridesk.org/rdc-tshisekedi-appelle-le-peuple-a-chasser-kabila-du-pouvoir-voa/.

[4] http://afridesk.org/ma-lecture-2-rdc-2016-equations-et-les-hommes-en-vue-jean-jacques-wondo/#sthash.pfUUN1px.dpuf.

[5] http://afridesk.org/rupture-en-vue-entre-katumbi-et-kabila-qui-militarise-le-katanga-en-signe-peur-jj-wondo/#sthash.ls7G36q5.dpuf.

[6] http://www.congoforum.be/fr/nieuwsdetail.asp?subitem=1&newsid=178031&Actualiteit=selected.

[7] http://www.voaafrique.com/content/la-police-empeche-un-match-du-tp-mazembe-a-lubumbashi-/3082800.html.

[8] http://www.grip.org/sites/grip.org/files/RAPPORTS/2015/Rapport%202015-3.pdf.

[9] http://www.grip.org/sites/grip.org/files/RAPPORTS/2015/Rapport%202015-3.pdf.

[10] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8X7-hbvSUFw.

[11] https://congomonde.wordpress.com/2015/03/31/kyungu-wa-kumwanza-croit-a-la-reunification-du-katanga-apres-le-decoupage/.

[12] http://www.grip.org/sites/grip.org/files/RAPPORTS/2015/Rapport%202015-3.pdf.

[13] TETRA – the digital standard for professional mobile radio. TETRA is worldwide digital standard for professional mobile radio provides excellent speech quality, high data rates as well as secure and encrypted connections. TETRA uses TDMA (Time Division Multiple Access) with four traffic channels for a bandwidth of 25 kHz.

[14] http://www.jeuneafrique.com/231029/politique/rdc-phil-mon-yav-le-tigre-de-kabila/.

[15] Jean-Claude Yav is the little brother of Philemon Yav. Jean-Claude Yav is part of the inner circle of military and strategic Kabila, as head of military intelligence FARDC (The DEMIAP) and second in command of the military house of the Congolese Head of State, alongside General François Olenga army, the Chief of Staff of particular Joseph Kabila. He is described by one of his former collaborators of the former 5th Military Region FAC (Congolese Armed Forces under LD Kabila) in Equateur former Province, as “a very hard and sanguinary man” who did not hesitate during the war against the RCD in 1999, to bring down the fugitives and deserters in the river on the axis Ngiri Bomongo – Makanza.

[16] Their leader Gédéon Kyungu is from Mitwaba.

[17] http://afridesk.org/alerte-desc-la-garde-republicaine-a-menace-de-renverser-joseph-kabila/.#sthash.ndz2kfeT.dpuf.

[18] In 2010, Dr Siswana was joined The Presidency as a special advisor on governance to the President on secondment from the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA). His responsibilities included advising the President on improving departmental processes and systems, Cabinet processes as well as monitoring and evaluation. The Presidency later appointed Dr Batandwa Siswana, as Chief Operations Officer with effect from 1 September 2011. He was the operational head of administration in the Presidency with responsibilities that include strategic planning, risk management and financial management. He was also the Deputy Secretary of Cabinet, assisting the Director-General and Secretary of Cabinet, Dr Cassius Lubisi. Dr Batandwa Siswana was appointed director of the foreign branch of the SSA. In Augustus 2013, Dr Batandwa Siswana was appointed SASS’s general director, with Joyce Mashele as his deputy for collection in Africa and Matchisiso Mhlambo for collection. He has also worked at the Applied Fiscal Research Centre (AFReC), where he was a Public Finance specialist, responsible for developing Public Finance courses, such as Risk management and expenditure management etc. He also advised executive officials from all three spheres of government on risk management, planning, budgeting, and governance.