The Rwandan President, Paul Kagame, has carried out an unprecedented restructuring of the command of the Rwandan Defence Force (RDF). As part of this reshuffle, he has also dismissed over 200 military personnel, including senior and general officers. He has sacked his Minister of Defense and the Army Chief, immediately replacing them. So far, the explanation provided by Kagame remains quite concise. He considers the changes made as “a normal thing.” “The objective remains the same… the only new thing is that a person is moved from one position to another,” he stated in a brief address during the swearing-in ceremony of the new Minister of Defense and other military officials. “The work must be done competently… and must be done with an understanding of the gravity of these responsibilities,” he added, according to an AFP dispatch[1]. This is nevertheless an unprecedented situation in Rwanda, raising questions.

New leaders in the Rwandan Defense

These changes include the appointment of a new Minister of Defense, a new Chief of Army Staff, a new head of internal security, and a new command for the Rwandan contingent deployed in Mozambique.

According to these ordinances, read on the Rwandan national television on June 5, 2023, General Juvénal Marizamunda has been appointed as the Minister of Defense, replacing Major General Albert Murasira. General Marizamunda previously served as the Director-General of the Rwanda Correctional Service (RCS) before his appointment, where he is succeeded by Brigadier General Evariste Murenzi.

President Kagame has also appointed a new Chief of Army Staff for the Rwandan Defense Force, Major General Mubarakh Muganga, replacing General Jean Bosco Kazura. Major General Mubarakh Muganga is a graduate of the US War College and served as the Commander of Reserve Forces from 2018 to 2019. Major General Vincent Nyakarundi becomes the new Chief of Staff of the Army.

Furthermore, General Nzabamwita has been removed from his position as Director-General of the National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS), which he held since 2016. He is replaced by Jean Bosco Ntibatura. In addition, Colonel Regis Gatarayiha has been appointed as the Director of Military Intelligence. Major General Alex Kagame has been named the commander of the Rwandan forces deployed in Mozambique.

A wave of dismissals within the ranks of the RDF

Following this restructuring, the Ministry of Defense announced on June 7, 2023, that Rwandan President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Paul Kagame, had also “dismissed from the Rwandan Defence Forces (RDF) Major General Aloys Muganga, Brigadier General Francis Mutiganda, and 14 other officers,” whose names were not disclosed. “He also authorized the dismissal of 116 other senior officers and approved the termination of service contracts for 112 other senior officers with immediate effect,” according to the statement.

General Mutiganda served as the head of external security within the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) until 2018 before being assigned to an unspecified role in the army headquarters. General Aloys Muganga had been commanding the mechanized forces since 2019.

Furthermore, 228 officers and non-commissioned officers of the RDF have also been affected by this significant purge within a predominantly ethnically Tutsi army, stemming from the Rwandan Patriotic Front. The rebellion that overthrew the regime of Hutu President Juvénal Habyarimana in 1994, leading to a genocide that claimed approximately 800,000 lives, mostly Tutsi.

These changes come after a warning from Ugandan intelligence services and in a climate of diplomatic tension with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

These reshuffles occur amidst tensions between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, with the latter accusing Rwandan authorities of providing military support to the M23 rebels who have occupied several territories in the DRC since June 2022, due to the inefficiency of the Congolese army. Since then, diplomatic voices have risen to denounce Kagame’s military support for the M23.

This shake-up within the Rwandan army comes after Lieutenant Colonel Emmanuel Katabazi, Deputy Director General of Uganda’s Internal Security Organization, recommended that security services intensify surveillance and mobilization in anticipation of unrest in the region and along the border areas with the DRC. He placed Ugandan intelligence and security agencies in the districts bordering the DRC on high alert, stating that an imminent “war capable of overthrowing one or two governments” is approaching[2].

Moreover, in the escalating diplomatic tensions between Kinshasa and Kigali, the Congolese President, Félix Tshisekedi, openly declared his intention to “assist the Rwandans in getting rid of Kagame’s dictatorial regime.”[3]

General Faustin Kayumba and Paul Kagame

A reshuffle to tighten ranks against the Rwandan armed opposition?

Indeed, since 2017, the Rwandan regime has faced an armed threat from a faction of the political-military opposition stemming from the dissidence of the RPF (Rwandan Patriotic Front). This particularly concerns the RNC (Rwanda National Congress), founded in 2010 by former Chief of Military Intelligence and former Chief of the Rwandan Army, Faustin Kayumba Nyamwasa, and former Chief of Military Intelligence, Patrick Karegeya, in their exile in South Africa. They accused President Kagame of authoritarian drift. On the other hand, Kagame accuses the RNC of aligning with Hutu génocidaires who are refugees in the DRC, the FDLR.

Kayumba and Karegeya are co-founders with Kagame of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), a political-military movement of Rwandan Tutsis who were refugees in Uganda in 1988. They had assisted Paul Kagame in overthrowing the Hutu regime of Juvénal Habyarimana in 1994. In the meantime, Kayumba survived two assassination attempts in South Africa in 2010, while Karegeya was killed in a Johannesburg hotel in 2014.

All three actively participated in the military offensive, from October 1996 to May 1997, of Laurent-Désiré Kabila’s AFDL (Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo), which they provided with weapons and Rwandan soldiers, against the Mobutu regime. This invasion resulted in mass killings of Congolese populations, particularly Rwandan Hutu refugees, as documented in the United Nations “Mapping Report” on human rights violations and international humanitarian law committed between 1993 and 2003 in the DRC.

In 2017, as diplomatic relations became strained between Uganda and Rwanda, Kayumba was reported to be present in Kampala. He established a base for the RNC in the highlands of South Kivu in the DRC. Kayumba received support from Museveni to carry out attacks against the Kigali regime, aided by the Burundian regime of Pierre Nkurunziza. The RNC formed an alliance with elements of the Tutsi armed group called Gumino. On the other hand, Kagame armed Burundian rebels from the FNL and Red Tabara[4]. Subtly, he infiltrated the armed group Maï-Maï Yakutumba, composed of Bembe, Fulliru, and Nyindu, which fights against the Banyamulenge armed militia of Gumino that supports General Kayumba Nyamwasa.

Moreover, since the escalation of armed conflict in the DRC, Rwanda accuses Congolese authorities of relying on Hutu fighters from the FDLR. At the same time, several young people from the city of Goma and surrounding areas have formed a self-defense militia called Wazalendo. These militiamen have been presented by a member of the central government as future “army reservists”[5] and consider themselves as “patriots.” They see it as their mission to “defend their natural environments against Rwandan aggression and the M23 rebels“[6].

In the face of this situation, Kigali fears a rapprochement between the FDLR, Wazalendo, and the network of Tutsi opposition figure Eugène Richard Gasana. Gasana is a former Rwandan ambassador to Germany and former Permanent Representative of Rwanda to the United Nations. He publicly expressed his disagreement with Kagame’s constitutional amendment in 2015, which paved the way for a third term in office. He has been opposing Kagame since 2016 and joined General Kayumba’s RNC. Gasana was seen in a photo with President Tshisekedi that is difficult to date. Another Rwandan opponent, Charles Kambanda, a lawyer living in New York, is also suspected by the Rwandan regime of supporting genocidal rebel groups based in the DRC. Attorney Kambanda had defended Gasana against Kagame’s attempt to have him expelled from the United States on false accusations manipulated by the Kigali regime through Interpol.

A restructuring in preparation for a decisive assault in the DRC, like in 1996?

This hypothesis is seriously considered by some regional experts, given the profiles of newly promoted individuals within the Rwandan military apparatus and the perceived threats to Kagame’s regime. According to regional security sources, Kagame takes the Congolese President’s statements about “helping Rwandans get rid of Kagame’s dictatorial regime” very seriously, possibly wanting to preempt any actions.

Kagame’s fear is that members of the RNC could ally with the Wazalendo to launch incursions into Rwanda. According to a military source from the EAC, the strengthening of the Wazalendo makes Rwandan military operations in the DRC more challenging. The Rwandan regime is concerned that a united front comprising both Tutsis and Hutus could emerge within its army and security services, shifting the balance of power against Kagame and potentially overthrowing his regime.

Indeed, the analysis of the profiles of promoted generals and senior officers raises concerns about a significant military offensive by Rwanda in the DRC. The appointment of General Mubarakh Muganga as the army chief is a serious indication, according to a regional security source. “Mubarakh is described as a war hawk who has been involved in all Rwandan military fronts in the DRC since the AFDL-RDF adventure,” they inform me. As for General Vincent Nyakarundi, the new chief of the army’s ground forces and operational head of RDF military operations, he has been highly active in intelligence services for over four years. He previously served as a military attaché for Rwanda in New York and Ottawa, two strategically important countries for Rwanda in the Great Lakes region. Nyakarundi is “someone Kagame holds in high regard.” He is originally from Burundi.

Another frustration for Kagame, which may have prompted this restructuring, according to our source, is that he couldn’t bear the fact that “his security services never alerted him in time about the presence of Eugène Gasana, Habyarimana’s son, and other fierce opponents of the Rwandan regime, who were warmly received by President Félix Tshisekedi.” Paul Kagame is convinced that Kinshasa and certain regional actors are plotting against his regime. Since his reconciliation with Museveni, facilitated through diplomatic activism by his son, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Kagame has been trying to bring back the former Rwandan military wing known as the “Uganda wing” into his military sphere after sidelining them.

The restructuring of the Rwandan military command comes after statements in late May 2023 by FARDC officials who warned of the intentions of the M23 and Rwanda to launch an assault towards Goma. Meanwhile, the United Nations Group of Experts on the DRC has just finalized a report stating that the Rwandan army continues to maintain its presence on Congolese soil in support of the M23 rebels. The UN experts have meticulously described Rwandan military activities in the DRC. The coordination of military operations on the ground in the DRC is overseen by Brigadier General Nyamvumba. Strategic coordination of military support is handled from Kigali by General James Kabarebe, the defense and security advisor to President Kagame and former Chief of General Staff of the Congolese Armed Forces between 1997 and 1998. To conduct military operations on Congolese soil under the name “North Kivu Operations,” Kabarebe relies on high-ranking army officials, including the current newly appointed Chief of General Staff of the RDF, Lieutenant General Mubarakh Muganga, and Major General Vincent Nyakarundi, former head of military intelligence, who were recently appointed as Chief of the Rwandan Army and Chief of the Army’s Ground Forces, respectively.[7]

It is important to recall the events of 1996 when the international community hesitated to reach a consensus on the deployment of a United Nations operation to the eastern part of Zaire [8] to contain the military activities of FPR elements in Rwandan refugee camps. It was precisely at that moment that Kagame decided, with the support of the Anglo-Saxons and Museveni, to invade Zaire through proxy via the AFDL, catching the international community off guard. Emboldened by this strategic success, Kagame would not hesitate to employ the same recipe that worked when facing diplomatic pressure regarding his military involvement in eastern DRC. In response to the UN experts’ report, the United States stated, “We reiterate our call for Rwanda to immediately withdraw Rwandan Defence Forces (RDF) troops from Congolese territory. We also call on Rwanda to immediately cease supporting the M23 armed group, which is sanctioned by the United Nations and the United States, and whose group of experts has found to be committing multiple violations of international humanitarian law and human rights, including rape and summary executions of civilians.”[9]

The reshuffling of the Rwandan army command conceals a large-scale military operation planned by Rwanda in the DRC. This threat must be taken very seriously by Congolese authorities. During his visit to Benin on April 15, 2023, Rwandan President Paul Kagame openly questioned the legitimacy of the borders between Rwanda and the DRC inherited from the colonial period. According to Kagame, a portion of Rwanda had been given to the current DRC.[10] A new invasion of Congo could be his response to this fallacious claim and to the aforementioned elements that Kagame perceives as serious threats to his regime and the integrity of Rwanda.

Jean-Jacques Wondo Omanyundu

References

[1] https://www.bbc.com/afrique/articles/crgdj142dxxo.

[2] https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/spymaster-warns-of-dr-congo-war-4253060.

[3] https://www.lisapo.info/rdc-felix-tshisekedi-veut-aider-les-rwandais-a-se-debarrasser-du-regime-dictatorial-de-kagame/.

[4] RED-Tabara stands for Resistance for a Rule of Law State in Burundi. It is an armed Burundian faction that has been particularly active since the beginning of the political crisis in 2015. Initially, it opposed the regime of former President Pierre Nkurunziza and the militias under his command, including the Imbonerakure.

[5] https://actualite.cd/2023/03/31/est-de-la-rdc-surmilitarisation-presence-des-miliciens-wazalendo-goma-et-nyiragongo.

[6] https://www.dw.com/fr/wazalendo-groupe-de-jeunes-rebelles-motivations-m23-fardc/a-65313895.

[7] Africa Intelligence, 18/06/2023.

[8] https://press.un.org/fr/1996/19961109.CS745.html.

[9] https://www.state.gov/final-report-by-un-group-of-experts/.

[10] https://information.tv5monde.com/afrique/rdcrwanda-la-polemique-de-paul-kagame-sur-les-frontieres-congolaises-2348729.