In the showdown that is shaping up in the Democratic Republic of the Congo around the control of the National Electoral Commission (CENI) and the conservation of power, Félix Tshisekedi’s opponents have an interest in really knowing the opposing forces. A quick analysis of political events since the disputed 2018 elections reveals several strong assets Tshisekedi has to face his opponents with the conviction of winning. We can retain six of them.

1. Mike Hammer aka « Nzita », US Ambassador to Congo

He is the main diplomat of a great power to openly support Félix Tshisekedi from the beginning. He gave himself a surname of « Nzita » in Kikongo and « Ntkemana » in Tshiluba « Hope » and multiplies appearances in a Congo where he appears as an international governor in charge of protecting the power in place. He is the main architect of the implosion of the FCC-CACH coalition, the sidelining of Joseph Kabila and the reorganization of the institutional political spectrum around the « Union sacrée » base on which Tshisekedi’s power rests. Tshisekedi. It is difficult to know how far his support for Tshisekedi will go, even if he pleads for the holding of the elections in 2023.

The Congolese, scalded over several generations by the double talk of the Westerners, should not have any illusions about Mike Hammer’s intentions. They should consider him, a priori, as one of the pillars of Tshisekedi’s power, like the other five below.

2. Corruption

This is surely the main strategic asset in the hands of Félix Tshisekedi, who knows perfectly well the political class of Kinshasa and its versatility in the face of easy money. Drawing from the state coffers without limits and betting on impunity in matters of corruption and embezzlement of public funds (despite a few brilliant shots from Jules Alingeti[1]), Tshisekedi knows that he can buy the loyalty, the silence or the complicity of any Congolese political actor. The emblematic image of the weapon of open-air corruption is that of the Hyundai Palissade cars attributed to the deputies and which were refused only by a small handful of parliamentarians, the faithful of Martin Fayulu and a few faithful of Joseph Kabila’s FCC.

By accepting money from corruption, parliamentarians have become the Tshisekedi’s liables. He then can do what he wants without fear of encountering resistance within the institutions.

3. The Luba elites

Affected by a received idea according to which the Luba should never accede to the presidency of Congo, many Luba compatriots found in the person of Félix Tshisekedi « the messiah » who will have broken the fate – real or supposed – on Luba-Kasai. Félix Tshisekedi represents both an opportunity for a personal career in politics, business, social success, but above all a lifeline that must be held on at all costs. The plethora of staff from the various departments of the presidency composed mainly of Luba-Kasai indicates that the tribalo-ethnic tropism is an existential fact in the ambient psychology around Tshisekedi .

Everything must be done to deny the imaginary anti-Luba “fatwa” concerning the presidency in Congo, and Tshisekedi must be maintained as President of the Republic at all costs. This is what can be seen behind the maneuvers which ultimately led to the placing under « Luba control » of all the administrations in charge of dictating the outcome of the electoral process of 2023. President Tshisekedi, who has already announced his candidacy, is luba; as well as the president of the National Electoral Commission (CENI) whom he invested after a series of forcings; the judge he appointed president of the Constitutional Court and who will have to ratify the final results of the elections, the interior ministers, the justice minister, … Everything seems to have already been done to ensure the maintenance in power of Felix Tshisekedi and the strengthening of a form of tribalo-hegemonist rule.

4. The street

Félix Tshisekedi is still the president of the UDPS party, the current president, Jean-Marc Kabund, only holds an interim presidency on the party. Tshisekedi has solid contacts with local activists that he can activate at any time and provoke the invasion of the streets of Kinshasa, and even institutions as in December 2020 when the « wewa » had invaded the Palais du peuple and caused the hasty departure of the President of the National Assembly, Jeannine Mabunda. He had already taken to the streets in October 2020 when he forcibly enthroned the new members of the Constitutional Court and let the UDPS hymn sing in the National Assembly. On October 16, 2021, the endorsement of Denis Kadima as president of the CENI took place in a parliament where supporters of power had been introduced to create a heavy climate, and even physical violence against deputies of the opposition.

The Tshisekedi’s opponets must therefore know that they will certainly be confronted with street violence in the face of which surrender or the ability to overcome the obstacle will determine the winner of the balance of power. If they are not able to impose themselves in the street struggles, Tshisekedi can quietly continue to unfold his agenda for the maintenance of power.

5. Paul Kagame

The Rwandan president is the embodiment of the misfortunes of the Congolese due to the repeated wars unleashed against the Congo from his country, Rwanda, for a quarter of a century. By making him his main regional partner and even his geopolitical godfather , Tshisekedi has the guarantee that if his power is threatened, Paul Kagame will activate his powerful networks infiltrated in the army, the police and the Congolese intelligence services to crush any of the Congolese opponent and his supporters. The Rwandan president, who is in conflict with all his neighbors in the Great Lakes region, knows that a political change in the Congo can lead to the end of his rule over Rwanda. Before his death in March 2021, Honoré Ngbanda had published a report describing a vast network of espionage and intelligence control throughout the territory of the DRC, a network sponsored by Rwandan General James Kabarebe. Kabarebe, who openly made threats against the Congolese Nobel Peace Prize winner Denis Mukwege, is known to have piloted the four wars against the Congo (AFDL/1996, RCD/1998, CNDP/2006, M23/2012) and even occupied the chair of Chief of Staff of the Congolese army between May 1997 and August 1998. The Rwanda of Paul Kagame watches over Tshisekedi’s power like milk on fire.

Tshisekedi’s political opponents must therefore know that they will be dealing with the legendary extreme violence of the Rwandan forces, either directly or through the thousands of Congolese “double agents”, ostensibly showing themselves as patriots during the day, but working hard in hide for the perpetuation of the hegemonism of Rwanda and the occupation of the Congo, legacies of the secret pacts concluded during the years of war.

6. The Kabila Tshisekedi deal

Despite all the crimes he committed during the 18 years of his presidency, Joseph Kabila lives peacefully in the Congo and happily benefits from the immense fortune he amassed during his reign. The deal concluded with Tshisekedi provided for not taking legal action against him. In exchange, Kabila left power while retaining control of his powerful networks within the army, police, intelligence services and the mining sector. The end of Tshisekedi’s presidency could call into question the clauses of the deal and put Joseph Kabila in anguish for the next day. Felix Tshisekedi’s opponents should not underestimate the pact that binds him to Joseph Kabila. Tshisekedi is for Joseph Kabila a kind of life insurance, and Kabila is keen on keeping Tshisekedi in power, despite his relative discretion.

Conclusion

Even if this is not a « war » over Tshisekedi – which would obviously be an unnecessary long-term calamity for the Congolese nation – strategic preparation work must still be carried out by his opponents, if they really want to change the political situation in Congo. Classical Chinese strategist Sun Tzu can be a source of inspiration, both for Tshisekedi himself and his supporters and for his opponents. Here are some precepts which could serve as lanterns: « Whoever knows his enemy as he knows himself, in a hundred battles will not be defeated. » Whoever knows himself but does not know the enemy will be victorious half of the time”. “Know the enemy and know yourself; in a hundred battles you will never be in danger”.

Do Tshisekedi’s opponents know him and his supporters? Do Tshisekedi’s opponents really know themselves, with their strengths and weaknesses? This is the challenge!

Know the adversary perfectly (not the enemy in this case) and know yourself.

Boniface Musavuli

Political analyst and author

Reference

[1]Jules Alingeti : Head of service at the General Inspectorate of Finance (IGF).